To The Moon

@Jayden Chong @TigerNews_SG @TigerClub [What]  [What]  [What]  

50bp, and a market rally please

Let's go high and higher 

On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve took a decisive step by reducing the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, marking a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy. This move, aimed at supporting a softening labour market and controlling still-elevated inflation levels, led to a variety of immediate reactions in financial markets, reflecting the complex interplay of investor expectations, economic indicators, and monetary policy. Market Movements The stock market initially reacted positively, with major indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting the day’s highs shortly after the announcement. This rally was underpinned by the relief among investors who had been anticipating aggressive action from the Fed to counteract recent economic slowdowns. Howeve

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September 18, 2024: 50bp rate cut September 18, 2007: 50bp rate cut September 18, 2024: 50bp rate cut 

Market may have reflected the rate cut of 0.25. So stock market may shoot up higher for a while then sell down eventually.

Yes it will push market up

✅✅I think a 50 basis point cut is not impossible. Currently, the two expectations are balanced, which means there is still a lot of suspense. Even data from the CME's "Fed Watch Tool" shows that traders in the interest rate futures market have recently predicted that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points tonight is as high as 64%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut has shrunk to 36%. There are four scenarios for rate cuts: 1. A 25 basis point cut, Powell's speech is hawkish, suggesting that the subsequent rate cuts will be lower than expected; 2. A 25 basis point cut, Powell's speech is dovish, suggesting that the subsequent rate cuts will be faster; 3. A 50 basis point cut, Powell's speech is hawkish, suggesting that the subsequent rate cuts will

Will 25 BP cut strengthen the USD?

50bps or 25bps - What will Fed go for ?

If rate cut would be expected news and priced in. Likely to sell on fact at first sign of weakness. 

Judging from the macro environment, everything seems to be rosy, corporate earnings are good, mag 7 are going great, retail sales up and and experts are not detecting any signs of weaknesses although downturn doesn't mean recession, with the rate cuts this year, it will sure prop up the market especially for those newer products already in the market or about to be delivered; of course, hopefully no serious conflicts in Russia and the Middle East!

A larger cut of interest points toward growth and economic concerns, may lead to market falling.

Here’s how the stock market has done in the past following rate cuts$S&P 500(.SPX)$  

After 11 rate hikes in 16 months, the FED held steady for a year. Inflation peaked at 9% in 2022 and now sits under 3%. The new worry is JOBS. Over 1 million jobs have been revised lower over the last 24 months. New job openings have slowed from 210,000 per month to 142,000. The unemployment rate is up from 3.5% to 4.2% since July 2023. Rate cut incoming as the labor market cools. Powell at 2pm.

With S&P just touch the ATH, is to show market has already priced in 25bsp. Instead market is actually expecting a 50bsp cut. However even if JP were to announce having a 50bsp cut it still depends on what's next, if the rest of the cuts for the year is gonna be 'data dependent' then market May not react well to it, as market don't like uncertainty. 

25 bps, then sell the news because S&P is near ATH resistance, and we are still in volatile Sep... this could be the last pull back before the rocket blasts off to the moon.  That means new ATH for the S&P by year end!!! [Miser]

Getting better and better now , stay healthy 

In the long run rate cuts are good for the market but short term volatility is likely so stay safe everyone

On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve took a decisive step by reducing the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, marking a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy. This move, aimed at supporting a softening labour market and controlling still-elevated inflation levels, led to a variety of immediate reactions in financial markets, reflecting the complex interplay of investor expectations, economic indicators, and monetary policy. Market Movements The stock market initially reacted positively, with major indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting the day’s highs shortly after the announcement. This rally was underpinned by the relief among investors who had been anticipating aggressive action from the Fed to counteract recent economic slowdowns. Howeve

During yesterday's intraday trading, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones reached new highs.Several institutions have once again raised their year-end target prices for the S&P 500.There is still significant disagreement in the market about whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps or 50 bps this time.Will rate cut continue to boost market higher or time to sell the fact?🎁Special Notes: Whoever showed up on the” What the Tigers Say” column will receive 100 Tiger Coins and an exclusive interview invitation to honor your contribution.Click titles to read the full analysis:1. @Chris Luk: Fed Rate Cut Dilemma: Will a 25 or 50 Basis Point Move Propel Markets or Trigger

As the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its interest rate decision on September 18th, investors are keenly watching for any signs of how the MAG7 stocks might respond. Historical data from the last Fed rate cut cycle in 2019, as illustrated in the provided image, can offer some insights.The data also highlights the performance of these stocks in the periods following the first, second, and third rate cuts, with some stocks showing impressive gains, such as $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ with a surge of +169.26%. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN

✅✅I think a 50 basis point cut is not impossible. Currently, the two expectations are balanced, which means there is still a lot of suspense. Even data from the CME's "Fed Watch Tool" shows that traders in the interest rate futures market have recently predicted that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points tonight is as high as 64%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut has shrunk to 36%. There are four scenarios for rate cuts: 1. A 25 basis point cut, Powell's speech is hawkish, suggesting that the subsequent rate cuts will be lower than expected; 2. A 25 basis point cut, Powell's speech is dovish, suggesting that the subsequent rate cuts will be faster; 3. A 50 basis point cut, Powell's speech is hawkish, suggesting that the subsequent rate cuts will

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@Jayden Chong @TigerNews_SG @TigerClub [What]  [What]  [What]  

50bp, and a market rally please

Let's go high and higher 

.....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,..😀

Yesterday, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $DJIA(.DJI)$ hit all-time-highs during intraday trading and then pulled back. The decision on a rate cut is expected tonight, but there is still considerable market disagreement on the extent of the cut, which is unprecedented. As of the time of writing, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 61% chance of a 50 bps cut and a 39% chance of a 25 bps cut.Will the market embrace rally or sell the fact after the rate cut? Opinions remain divided. Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicts a weeks-long rally for stocks after the Fed cuts rates, expecting stocks to climb higher in the coming weeks. However, a WSB user warns about the impact of balance sheet and tapering, rather than just rate cuts. I

The Federal Reserve is set to meet this Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss its next move on interest rates. Tom Lee, the research head at Fundstrat, predicted that after a major rate decision on Wednesday, U.S. stocks could see a rebound over the following weeks. First Rate Cut in Four YearsThe market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points, marking its first rate cut in four years. Given the supportive inflation data and the need for labor market support, this could boost market confidence. Lee believed the stock market will perform well during and shortly after the meeting.For months, Wall Street has anticipated a rate cut, especially as signs of economic weakness have emerged due to tighter financial conditions. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, while economi

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its highly anticipated rate announcement this Wednesday, market participants are faced with a significant dilemma: will the central bank opt for a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut, or could it go further with a 50 bps reduction? Traders have been ramping up their bets on the latter, with the CME's FedWatch Tool showing a 59% probability of a 50 bps cut, up from 43% just last Friday. This marks a crucial moment for both the Fed and investors, as the rate cut may either propel the markets higher or trigger an unexpected sell-off. The 25 bps vs. 50 bps Debate is more than just about the size of the rate cut; it’s about the underlying message the Fed conveys. If the central bank opts for a 25 bps cut, it signals a cautious yet optimistic approach, suggesting th

🔸MORGAN STANLEY ON APPLE: 'SEE NEAR-TERM DOWNSIDE OF ~$200, AND WE'D BUY ANY POTENTIAL ESTIMATE CUTS AS AI-DRIVEN MULTI-YEAR UPGRADES ARE A WHEN, NOT AN IF' "iPhone 16 lead times are extending but tracking lower Y/Y, with the average iPhone 16 lead time in the US down 33% Y/Y (or 7 days). At the model level, iPhone 16 lead times are similar Y/Y while iPhone 16 Plus lead times are higher Y/Y, but iPhone 16 Pro/Pro Max lead times are down Y/Y. First 2-week lead times are directionally predictive of N12M shipments at the model level, but not for Dec Q iPhone build revisions or total iPhone shipments. Therefore, what matters most is how iPhone 16 lead times trend over the next 10 days. See near-term downside of ~$200, and we'd buy any potential estimate cuts as AI-driven multi-year upgrades ar

Judging from the macro environment, everything seems to be rosy, corporate earnings are good, mag 7 are going great, retail sales up and and experts are not detecting any signs of weaknesses although downturn doesn't mean recession, with the rate cuts this year, it will sure prop up the market especially for those newer products already in the market or about to be delivered; of course, hopefully no serious conflicts in Russia and the Middle East!

September 18, 2024: 50bp rate cut September 18, 2007: 50bp rate cut September 18, 2024: 50bp rate cut 

Market may have reflected the rate cut of 0.25. So stock market may shoot up higher for a while then sell down eventually.

Many people expect the upcoming interest rate cut to be either 25 or 50 basis points. In my view, both scenarios come with pros and cons. On one hand, I would welcome a larger 50bps cut since I hold stocks and treasury bond ETFs, which would likely benefit from such as move. On the other hand, a smaller 25bps cut appeals to me as well as I prefer the high interest rate environment to persist a bit longer, allowing me to earn more interest on my savings. That said, does the rate cut have to be 25 or 50 bps? While these are the most discussed possibilities, other outcomes aren't impossible, though less likely. The impact of the rate cut on the stock market will vary across sectors, with some benefitting more than others. I do have certain stocks I am looking to sell so I am hoping for a bul

The continuation of rate cuts could potentially boost the market higher, as lower interest rates generally make borrowing cheaper, encourage spending, and stimulate economic growth. This environment can lead to increased corporate profits and higher consumer confidence, driving stock prices up. Additionally, as investors seek better returns, they may flock to equities over fixed-income securities, further supporting market gains. However, it's crucial to monitor economic indicators and market sentiment, as shifts in these factors could influence the sustainability of any upward momentum. @TigerClub @Tiger_comments @TigerStars </

After 11 rate hikes in 16 months, the FED held steady for a year. Inflation peaked at 9% in 2022 and now sits under 3%. The new worry is JOBS. Over 1 million jobs have been revised lower over the last 24 months. New job openings have slowed from 210,000 per month to 142,000. The unemployment rate is up from 3.5% to 4.2% since July 2023. Rate cut incoming as the labor market cools. Powell at 2pm.

I’m still expecting 25bps cut as Powell has been cautious against making big changes even with the first rate hike. I do expect the market to rally if Powell gives the market its expectations but there will be profit takers. For the rest of the year, I don’t think the S&P500 to increase much higher due to the elections that will take place at the end of the year and there is a good chance of economic slowdown that will spark fears of recession again.