To The Moon

There's much to discuss about media $Apple(AAPL)$ Event; here, it mainly focuses on the two key points I wrote about earlier. Below are the short-term perspectives; going forward, the following main focus will be on the iPhone 16 pre-order results, as they will have a longer-term impact on both Apple's and its supply chain's stock prices.

1. Apple Intelligence:

Apple Intelligence was the key factor behind the market's growing optimism towards Apple and its supply chain following June's WWDC. At the core of this trade was centered around the idea of "better than feared," as there had been widespread concerns that Apple was lagging in AI. Post-WWDC, Apple's stock and those of its supply chain gained, raising market expectations. As a result, the media event can't rely solely on being "better than feared" to drive stock prices higher; it needs to provide more details and user experience that convince investors that Apple's intelligence is "better than expected."

From the media event, people learned about the timeline for the official release of Apple Intelligence in the U.S. and plans for a global rollout in 2025, which underscores Apple's commitment to advancing on-device AI. However, the lack of near-term visibility for Apple Intelligence due to the inability to validate the user experience, fewer details, and the stock's relatively high price could easily allow short-term investors to take profits first.

2. iPhone 16 series pricing:

The pricing of the iPhone 16 series, set at the same level as the iPhone 15, helps mitigate the downside risk of stock prices. However, the pricing strategy alone may not provide the desired upside momentum. The key is that the visibility of Apple Intelligence, the biggest selling point, did not improve significantly after the media event, so it is not easy to immediately convince investors that this pricing strategy will help shipments until the supply chain shipment forecasts increase.

The iPhone 16 Pro Max battery density increase predicted about 4 months ago may be verified by comparing the battery life and weight of the Pro series.

The basic concept is that the battery is only one of the factors that make up the weight of the phone, but usually battery life is directly proportional to weight.

For every 1% increase in weight, battery life (movie playback) increases by 5.1% for the 16 Pro Max compared to the iPhone 15 Pro Max.Battery life (movie playback) increases by 4.5% for every 1% increase in weight on the 14 Pro Max compared to the 13 Pro Max.

Compared to the 15 Pro, battery life increases by 2.7% for every 1% increase in weight for the 16 Pro.Compared to the 13 Pro, the 14 Pro saw a 3% increase in battery life for every 1% increase in weight.

In terms of the increase in battery life per 1% increase in weight, the main reason for the 16 Pro's regression over the 14 Pro would be because it comes with more periscopes than the 15 Pro.And one of the reasons for the 16 Pro Max's advancement over the 14 Pro Max would be the increased battery density.

Note that it is not appropriate to compare the 13/14 Pro series with the 15/16 Pro series because the 13 and 14 Pro series center frames are stainless steel and the 15 and 16 Pro series center frames are titanium, and there is a significant difference in material weight between the two, so it is not appropriate to compare the 13/14 Pro series with the 15/16 Pro series.