🔸MORGAN STANLEY ON APPLE: 'SEE NEAR-TERM DOWNSIDE OF ~$200, AND WE'D BUY ANY POTENTIAL ESTIMATE CUTS AS AI-DRIVEN MULTI-YEAR UPGRADES ARE A WHEN, NOT AN IF'
"iPhone 16 lead times are extending but tracking lower Y/Y, with the average iPhone 16 lead time in the US down 33% Y/Y (or 7 days). At the model level, iPhone 16 lead times are similar Y/Y while iPhone 16 Plus lead times are higher Y/Y, but iPhone 16 Pro/Pro Max lead times are down Y/Y. First 2-week lead times are directionally predictive of N12M shipments at the model level, but not for Dec Q iPhone build revisions or total iPhone shipments. Therefore, what matters most is how iPhone 16 lead times trend over the next 10 days. See near-term downside of ~$200, and we'd buy any potential estimate cuts as AI-driven multi-year upgrades are a when, not an if."
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