How Tesla Traders Are Betting On Robotaxi Event?
The upcoming Robotaxi AI Event on October 10th is seen as key to $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ future growth; after all, Tesla has been sluggish so far this year and has faced problems on different fronts such as overvaluation, declining margins, executive departures, and Musk's personal behavior.
Current market expectations include:
The latest Fully Self-Driving (FSD) technology, expected to be FSD v12.5, emphasizing Robotaxi's ability to handle complex traffic situations without human driver intervention
Driving the commercialization process, by showcasing Robotaxi in real-world scenarios, Tesla hopes to attract investors and partners, which is a new business model.
Cybercab's official unveiling of the driverless cab model
Wireless charging, which will facilitate Robotaxi's operations and reduce reliance on traditional charging facilities.
But the reality may not always materialize, and $Morgan Stanley (MS)$, which put out a 100,000-word Dojo report last year, threw cold water on the idea that the Oct. 10 Event may not meet investors' high expectations.It may not be uncertain what else will be on offer, other than showing off FSDv12.5 and offering a ride on the first-generation Cybercab.
But investors are already previewing the market and starting to trade the "launch ticker", and in addition to a better (albeit volatile) performance in the last month than the SPX over the same period, the overall activity in options is up.
The current IV Rank of 73% and IV Percentile of 92% are basically similar to the level 2 weeks before the earnings report, while the IV Rank of NVDA is only 29% during the same period.As a result, "greater volatility is predicted for TSLA" is the higher market consensus.A near-term push to 240 is inevitable, but there are a number of hold-ups around 250 at the beginning of July that still need to be watched out for.
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