To The Moon

News and my thoughts from last week (30Sep24)

Next will be next. These “digital brokerages” were never venture-style businesses and shouldn’t have raised or received VC funding. - X user Craig Fuller

• Hurricane Helene Makes Landfall In Florida As Category 4 Storm leaving 1 million without power. (27Sep24) - Forbes

• $8,000,000,000.00 more to Ukraine while Veterans are sleeping on the streets. - X user Gunther Eagleman

*U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 218,000; EST. 224,000; PREV. 222,000 *LOWEST SINCE MAY 2024 - investing dot com (26Sep24)

• We have people who would say what they need to get what they want with no intent, plan or action to honor their words. Words are not promises.

• OpenAI decides to become a for-profit company now the CTO, head of research, and VP of training research all decide to leave on the same day this is announced Sam Altman gets a $10.5B pay day (7% of the company) on the same day Tim Cook and Satya Nadella are okay with this? they have no issue with their core foundation model investment losing 3 core execs, including the CTO? not to mention the cofounder LEFT and started a new startup called “Super Safe Intelligence,” last month…kind of implying he doesn’t think OpenAI is safe?! i mean dude what did SAM do?! no WAY three high level people leave on the same day, almost as if it was coordinated, unless they felt Sam did something. having been part of various groups in my life, when people leave, it’s because there was beef. that simple. when one of my friends quit the debate team in high school it wasn’t to focus on his school work, it’s cause he hated our debate coach. I think Sam did something. something that made 3 execs leave at the same time. - X user Amitisinvesting

Charlie Munger on what it takes to become a better investor. - from X user Value Investor Journal

• “The world isn’t driven by greed. It’s driven by envy” - Charlie Munger What drives you?

NATO prepares plan for "huge number of casualties" in case of WW3 scenario with Russia, Daily Mail reports. - X user BRICS News

• Some 45,000 union workers could walk off the job at seaports on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts on Oct 1. A strike would hit 36 ports that handle about one-half of U.S. ocean imports. - Reuters

• “Palantir (is) being undervalued if it deliver in excess of 20% compounded revenue growth over the next 10 years,” notes Wright’s Research. If growth falters, the downside could be a staggering 68.76% drop from current levels. - Tipranks

• From the post, Chinese EVs seems better and more advanced. Protectionism can buy time but does not help with innovation and competitiveness. We do not need to be ahead with every technoloy but let us not be left behind.

• Manufacturing sector falls as services expand.

• CHINA'S YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT HITS RECORD HIGH AMID ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN China’s youth unemployment rate reached a new peak of 18.8% in August, driven by an economic slump and restrictive hiring policies. Companies are hesitant to hire recent graduates, fearing future costs of layoffs. The urban unemployment rate also rose to 5.3%, as key sectors like real estate and finance contract. Source: CNBC

• HSBC hit by sixfold surge in Hong Kong property loan defaults HSBC had $3.2bn in “credit impaired” commercial real estate loans to Hong Kong clients as of June 30, up from just $576mn six months earlier. - FT

• A major strike is on the horizon for thousands of maritime workers, posing a threat to East Coast ports responsible for billions of dollars of goods. - NBC News

• A port strike will impact supply chains, leading to delays in cargo movement, increased costs, & logistical challenges. This can compound disruptions, affecting import & export activities, container availability, & operational efficiency. - Maersk

Some highlights from X user The Kobeissi Letter

Youth unemployment is rising: The US unemployment rate for people aged 16-24 jumped to 9.7% in August, the highest level since June 2021. By comparison, the national unemployment rate is at 4.2%, near a 3-year high. Since April 2023, the youth unemployment rate has skyrocketed by 3.1 percentage points. Such a material increase usually occurs during an economic downturn. Currently, 16% of 18 to 24 year-olds are neither employed nor enrolled in high school/college according to Fed data. When the labor market deteriorates, the youth are usually the first to feel it.

The market is now pricing in a 50% chance of a US recession by June 2025. The percentage has more than doubled over the last month and is up from just 10% in July. Furthermore, the market is pricing in a 50% probability that the Fed will cut rates by at least 200 basis points over the next 8 months. By comparison, the Federal Reserve expects 150 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025. This comes after a 50-basis point rate reduction on Wednesday which marked the largest surprise for markets since 2008. The market is clearly pricing-in a recession.

@TigerStars

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