S&P 500 Returns >20% Through Q3: What’s Next?
The S&P 500 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV)$ has gained 22% through the first three quarters of this year.
Historically, there have been 24 instances where the index posted gains of 20% or more by the end of Q3:
87.5% of the time, the S&P 500 delivered positive returns in Q4.
The average Q4 return was 4.1%.
Since 1943, in years with gains of over 20% through Q3, the S&P 500 typically finds its bottom around October 27, with an average drawdown of -2.12%, followed by a rally through December.
Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers, 1 Oct 2024
Conclusion:
I remain skeptical of an October rally and expect a potential correction lasting until the end of Oct for U.S. stocks.
Modify on 2024-10-02 08:39
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