US market : Pull up or Dampen by Tesla?
On Wed, 02 Oct 2024, US market managed to stem its loss “suffered” the day before spooked by Iran attack on Israel.
Although Iran said the attack is finished, Israel's PM has promised to fight back.
On Israel’s counterstrike, perhaps it will commence after their current incursion into southern Lebanon?
By the time 4pm came around: (see above)
DJIA: +0.09% (+39.55 to 42,196.52).
S&P 500: +0.01% (+0.79 to 5,709.54).
Nasdaq: +0.08% (+14.76 to 17,925.12).
US Private Payroll.
The 2nd of 4 jobs reports was published on Wednesday. (see above)
US September 2024 private payrolls increased by +38.83% to 143,000, more than analysts’ estimates of 124,000. The increase was based on upwards revised August data of 103,000 jobs.
Overall data was boosted by hiring in the following industries:
Construction employment increased by 26,000.
Leisure & hospitality added 34,000 jobs.
Education & Health services added 24,000 jobs.
Annual Pay Growth.
While hiring increased, the rate of pay growth took another step down:
The 12-month gain for those staying in their jobs nudged lower to 4.7%.
For job switchers, it tumbled to 6.6%, down -0.7% from August data.
More important, latest data adds to the evidence of a stable labour market, holding its ground.
US Weekly jobless claims.
A new day, a new job report will be released on Thu, 03 Oct 2024.
Wall Street is also looking ahead to new labor market data - the weekly jobless claims Thursday.
Non Farm Payroll - Forecast.
The main event for traders and the Fed as it has embarked on a rate-cutting cycle will be September’s Non-farm payrolls report, due on Fri, 04 Oct 2024 morning.
Wall Street has forecasted a growth of 150,000, following August’s “disappointing” showing of 142,000, of which 118,000 came from private sector hiring.
17 October 2024.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ investors please take note of 17 Oct 2024 as the car maker will be releasing its Q3 2024 earnings.
However, there should not be any upside surprises given that the car maker has released its third quarter delivery on Wed, 02 Oct 2024.
According to estimates compiled by FactSet, the key numbers:
Total production Q3 2024: 469,796 vs 430,488 (Q3 2023).
Total deliveries Q3 2024: 462,890 vs 435,059 (Q3 2023).
Analysts were expecting deliveries of 463,310 in the period ended 30 Sep 2024.
Tesla has fallen short of expectations by 420 EVs.
Based on another analyst’s estimates, Tesla missed deliveries by even more.
According to estimates compiled by LSEG:
Expected deliveries of 469,828 vehicles.
Tesla’s incentives and financing deals failed to lure enough customers for its aging EVs, sending shares down more than -6%, intraday.
It ended Wednesday, fallen by -3.49% to $249.02 per share.
This puts the EV maker, already (a) grappling with rising competition and (b) slowing demand for EVs at risk of its first-ever decline in annual deliveries after years of rapid growth.
With the disappointing results, Tesla has effectively erased all its YTD gains, at the end of yesterday.
On CEO Elon Musk’s strong conviction that Tesla would exceed its 2023’s 1.8 million EV sales, Wednesday's numbers make that "extremely difficult" to materialize.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances (again), punters are still holding out for next Thu, 10 Oct 2024 when Tesla will unveil its robotaxis.
Until something substantial is witnessed with its robotaxis, everything about it is still hearsay and up in the air.
Short term strategy
Investors looking for a strategy to playing US market over the next 10 days may want to take a cue from an age-old Wall Street adage.
Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur.
The saying known as “sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur” suggests that investors should:
Sell into the Jewish New year (evening of Wed, 02 Oct 2024 to Fri, 05 Oct 2024).
Buy into the Day of Atonement (Fri, 11 Oct 2024 to Sat, 12 Oct 2024).
Will Tesla’s weak performance thwart US jobs reports in pulling US market higher ?
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