To The Moon

We saw the market exhibit cautious trading as investors are waiting for Friday's employment report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

On top of this caution, the geopolitical concerns contributed to an increase in oil prices. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 1851 to 955 and 83 ended unchanged; on the NASDAQ, 2136 fell and 1140 advanced, while 111 ended unchanged.

The S&P 500 closed just below 5,700, dropping nearly ten points or 0.2% from the previous day. NASDAQ remained relatively flat, the DJIA fell by 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 declined by 0.7%.

The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were International Business Machines (IBM), which rose 1.36% or 2.99 points to trade at 222.72 at the close. Meanwhile, Salesforce Inc (CRM) added 0.51% or 1.43 points to end at 280.91 and Chevron Corp (CVX) was up 0.20% or 0.30 points to 151.25 in late trade.

S&P 500 Energy Sector Gain As WTI Crude Oil Futures Rose

WTI crude oil futures rose 5.0%, settling at $73.73 per barrel, leading the S&P 500 energy sector to gain 1.58%, the highest among the 11 sectors. Information Technology sector came in second

U.S. stocks were lower after the close on Thursday, as losses in the Consumer Goods, Basic Materials and Healthcare sectors led shares lower.Consumer Discretionary sector and Materials was the worst performers losing -1.28% and -1.15% respectively.

CBOE Volatility Index Higher

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 options, was up 8.41% to 20.49. This is way above the previous low around 12.

Note Yield Rose Due to Better Manufacturing Data

Despite geopolitical tensions, Treasuries closed with losses across the yield curve. The 10-year yield declined by eleven basis points to 3.841%, and the 2-year yield also decline by sixteen basis points to 3.70%.

Note yields declined despite the September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index exceeding expectations. However, it did not alter the rate cut probabilities ahead of the jobs report.

The fed funds futures market indicates a 68.9% probability of a 25 basis points cut at the November FOMC meeting, slightly up from 64.8% the previous day.

Stocks To Watch

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ faced internal changes as its Chief Information Officer, Nagesh Saldi, announced his departure. This comes just before Tesla's upcoming robotaxi event and amid a series of executive exits this year. Saldi's exit highlights ongoing restructuring within Tesla's AI and autonomous driving sectors.

Despite a seven-session losing streak, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ remains a strong performer for the year, gaining nearly 22%. Analysts continue to be bullish on Amazon, with capital investments in AWS and custom silicon chips expected to drive revenue growth and improve margins.

From the technical, MACD is showing bearish downside, that might explain the downside trading over the last few days, and do note that AMZN is trading near the short-term MA, so I am waiting for it to clear the level as MTF is still showing uptrend on average.

I am holding onto my position for AMZN for the long term, so I expect there might be some adjustment in the stock price, my target sell price would be around $205.

Wells Fargo analysts released their "Core" list of high-quality stocks, featuring companies like $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ , Comcast (CMCSA), and Disney (DIS) . These stocks are valued for their long-term growth potential, earnings stability, and strong management teams.

For me, I am holding GOOGL for the long term, as there have been news of investments in southeast asia, this region is poised for the next growth area, as we are seeing businesses setting up shops here.

For eCommerce companies, we are also seeing names like Shopee in Singapore and GoTo in Indonesia growing, so from the technical, we are also seeing positive and encouraging signal from MACD.

And the MTF is showing very positive uptrend as GOOGL have been trading above both the short-term and long-term MA, this would mean that we could see GOOGL making a nice upside towards a new highs or its previous highs at $191.

I am holding this position and would not be selling as I am expecting GOOGL to grow into one of the large mega cap with trillion dollars valuation.

Verizon Communications (VZ) was highlighted in Wells Fargo's Value Equity List, which identifies stocks trading at a discount with potential for long-term returns. This list aims to enhance diversification by including companies across various sectors.

In the AI semiconductor space, Cerebras Systems filed for an IPO, aiming to compete in a market dominated by $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ . Cerebras' entry could introduce competition in the AI GPU market, which Nvidia currently leads.

Nvidia is coming back as seen from the technicals, we are seeing a potential bullish MACD crossover, and MTF is giving a strong uptrend, so I am expecting Nvidia to make a new highs in these few weeks.

We are seeing similar trend in AMD and this could signal the recovery of the semiconductor stocks, but these 2 stocks are something I am looking at, because they should complement each other, rather than compete.

I am holding both my NVDA and AMD positions as the AI hype is moving into software enablers, which would drive AI chips demand, NVDA and AMD are the front runner, so they should be grabbing the benefits and opportunities first.

Summary

I think market might trade cautiously as investors comprehend the labor data which is due to release on Friday (04 Oct), there will be much positivity on the semiconductor stocks as demand for AI chips would continue to grow as cloud providers and software makers would demand for more.

There is also opportunities in the energy stocks as the geopolitical tensions situation develops. So monitor and trade safely.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think market would be helped by the tech and semiconductor stocks with support from energy stocks?

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.