To The Moon

Chinese equities remain a focal point of global market attention as volatility continues to grip the country’s stock market. After suffering their largest single-day loss in four years on Wednesday, Chinese stocks showed a mixed response to the latest policy developments.

With attention shifting to the US and European markets, investors are gearing up for the latest US inflation data due later Thursday, which is expected to provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve’s future policy trajectory. Meanwhile, geopolitical and weather-related risks in the US and Middle East continue to shape market sentiment.

Chinese Stocks See Volatile Session as Investors Seek Clarity on Policy

• Market Swings Despite New Liquidity Tool

Chinese equities were characterized by heightened volatility on Thursday as investors digested details of a new liquidity mechanism for institutional investors. This tool, initially unveiled last month, is designed to stabilize the market by making it easier for major players to purchase shares.

- $CSI300(000300.SH)$ Rebounds Amid Uncertainty: The CSI 300 Index initially jumped following the announcement, but gains were pared as traders remained cautious ahead of a Saturday press conference by China’s finance ministry.

$CSI300

• European and US Officials Urge Caution on China Relations

Adding to the uncertainty, Spain’s top economic official warned against escalating protectionist measures between the European Union and China, emphasizing the risk of a “lose-lose” outcome. The comments come as tensions remain high between Beijing and Western economies over trade, technology, and geopolitical issues.

US Stocks Set Fresh Highs as Inflation Data Looms

• Tech-Led Rally Pushes Major Indices to Record Levels

US stocks extended their recent gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.0% to close at a record high of 42,512. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ also hit a new all-time high, gaining 0.7% on the day, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 0.6%, moving closer to record territory. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$

$XLK

- Cboe Volatility Index Declines: The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the “Fear Index,” fell 2.6% to 20.86, indicating a decrease in market anxiety. However, the index remains elevated compared to earlier in the year, reflecting lingering uncertainties.

• Fed Minutes Highlight Confidence in Inflation Outlook

Minutes released from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting suggested that officials are gaining confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path towards the 2% target.

-Rate Cut Expectations Adjusted: Market expectations for a half-point rate cut in November have largely been shelved following last week’s robust jobs report. However, the Fed’s focus on stabilizing the labor market means that additional rate cuts remain on the table for the coming months, depending on incoming economic data.

The main focus for global investors on Thursday will be the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. Economists expect the data to show a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, marking a post-pandemic low. A figure in line with or below expectations would further support the case for continued rate cuts by the Fed, potentially boosting equity markets.

• Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risks

Crude oil prices have been under pressure amid concerns about China’s economic outlook and the potential for an escalation in Middle Eastern tensions. Brent crude is trading near $73.24 a barrel, down 5% over the past two days.

$XLE

Conclusion: Market Focus Shifts to Inflation Data and Fed Guidance

As Chinese markets grapple with uncertainty and global investors look ahead to critical US inflation data, volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term. The outcome of Thursday’s CPI release will set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and could have significant ramifications for global asset prices. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and weather-related disruptions add further layers of complexity to an already challenging market environment.

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@TigerStars @CaptainTiger @Tiger_SG @TigerPM

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Market conditions are fluid, and investors should consult a financial advisor before making any decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.