To The Moon

There’s no denying that $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ stock has defied gravity for some time now, holding up remarkably well despite significant losses. On the surface, it doesn’t seem to make much sense—traditional metrics point to a company with a shaky financial foundation. Yet, DJT has continued to attract investors, and the stock remains resilient. In my view, there are a few key reasons for this, and they go beyond just financial performance.

One common explanation, and arguably the most obvious one, is that DJT is being treated as a political bet. Investors are looking at DJT as a proxy for Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election. But I think there’s more to the story than just that.

The first and most straightforward explanation for DJT’s resilience is that the stock price is, in effect, a bet on Trump’s political future. The company has strong ties to Donald Trump’s image and brand, and as Trump’s campaign gains traction or wanes, so does the stock. In this sense, DJT has become something of a “Trump futures” stock.

Trump’s political career is closely intertwined with his business ventures, and as we know, political wins or losses can have a direct impact on stock valuations, especially for companies so closely tied to a single figure. The closer we get to the election, the more we might see DJT’s stock move in tandem with Trump’s polling numbers. If Trump wins the election, it’s easy to see how DJT could benefit from increased visibility, favorable regulatory treatment, or renewed business opportunities tied to a Trump presidency.

In this context, investors aren’t just buying shares in DJT—they’re buying into the possibility that Trump returns to the Oval Office. The potential upside is that DJT’s business might thrive under a second Trump administration, with more favorable policies or media exposure. And that’s a powerful motivator for those looking to ride that wave.

While the political explanation for DJT’s stock resilience is valid, I think there’s a second explanation that’s often overlooked but could be just as important. And that is the immense value of free advertising and media exposure that Donald Trump can bring to DJT.

Donald Trump is a media magnet. Every tweet, rally, or public statement generates headlines. Whether you like him or not, Trump’s ability to dominate the news cycle is unparalleled, and this creates free marketing for DJT. This is no small thing. Advertising is one of the largest expenses for any business, and DJT essentially gets free media attention by being associated with Trump.

Consider this: if Trump decides to pivot DJT into a new business, such as launching a new social network or entering a lucrative partnership, the company would immediately gain massive visibility without having to spend a dime on advertising. That’s worth a lot. Media coverage is a huge expense for most businesses, but Trump can tap into that ecosystem effortlessly.

This opens up the possibility that DJT could pivot into a new business model or capitalize on Trump’s media presence in ways that are currently unaccounted for in traditional financial analysis. The company may have underperformed by conventional standards, but the possibility of a pivot, coupled with free media exposure, gives it a level of optionality that’s hard to ignore.

Personally, this is where I stand. Despite the stock’s large losses and seemingly precarious financial position, I’ve chosen not to short DJT. Why? There’s a well-known market adage that says, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” And I think this is especially true for DJT. Shorting a stock that is effectively a political proxy is dangerous because it’s driven more by sentiment and speculation than by hard financials.

If Trump wins the 2024 election, there’s a chance that DJT sees a massive boost, regardless of its financial fundamentals. On the other hand, if Trump loses, DJT could quickly collapse, potentially going belly up. This makes the stock extremely volatile, and for that reason, it’s not something I’m willing to bet against.

In my view, DJT is a highly speculative stock, and its price is being driven by two main forces. First, it’s a bet on the outcome of the 2024 election, with investors hoping that a Trump victory will bring a windfall for the company. Second, it’s benefiting from Trump’s unique ability to generate free advertising, which could be hugely valuable if the company pivots to a new business model, such as launching a social network or some other venture that capitalizes on his media presence.

While I’m personally staying away from shorting DJT, I think it’s worth keeping an eye on, especially as the political landscape evolves. The stock may continue to defy traditional financial logic, but as long as Trump remains a central figure in American politics, DJT will remain a wildcard in the market.

What do you think about DJT’s future?

Do you believe the stock can continue to hold up, or do you see a collapse coming if Trump doesn’t win the election?

@MillionaireTiger @Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @CaptainTiger @TigerSG

Disclaimer: This is a general analysis and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.