ASML Plummets 16%! Can TSMC Save the Day?
@Tiger_comments：
$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ originally scheduled to release its earnings on Wednesday, surprised the market by announcing them early on Tuesday. Following the report, ASML's stock plunged by as much as 17%, marking its biggest intraday drop since 2008. Since hitting an all-time high in July, ASML's stock has already fallen by 30%. The selloff wasn't limited to ASML—other equipment manufacturers like $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ and $Lam Research(LRCX)$ dropped by 11%, $KLA-Tencor(KLAC)$ by 15%, and semiconductor giants such as $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ also followed suit. “Disappointed” with bad news piling up. ASML revealed that its orders for Q3 were only 2.6 billion euros, nearly half of the market's expected 5.4 billion euros. Furthermore, the company lowered its 2025 guidance, cutting revenue estimates from the previously projected 30-40 billion euros to 30-35 billion euros. Gross margin estimates were also revised down from 54%-56% to 51%-53%. Management warned that aside from AI, the recovery in demand for other chips is falling short of expectations. But is it really that bad? Is this a buying opportunity? Despite the short-term setback, ASML's long-term prospects remain positive. The company’s Q3 performance was still strong, with revenue of 7.5 billion euros, up 12% year-over-year, exceeding the upper end of management’s guidance of 7.3 billion euros. Furthermore, ASML's management highlighted that AI demand is exceptionally strong with further room for growth. Following the sharp drop, ASML's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen to 38, reaching its lowest level in recent years. After yesterday’s plunge, ASML's stock is now back to its opening price for the year at $730, with the next support level at $560. Whether it’s a buying opportunity will depend on this week’s TSM earnings report. TSMC is set to release its earnings before market open tomorrow. Given TSMC’s better-than-expected update in September, can it turn the tide and save the semiconductor industry? How do you view ASML’s plunge? Is it a buying opportunity at $700 or not? Can TSM’s earnings save the day for semiconductor? Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
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