The Federal Reserve is likely to Change its Policy at the November Meeting
The recent U.S. macroeconomic data is so strong that the Federal Reserve regrets cutting interest rates. [Cute]
The latest retail sales data for September and the first two weeks of October show that, driven by solid employment growth, strong wage growth, and high stock and housing prices, U.S. consumers continue to perform well. #KaiFeng Fundamentals#
The Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast for the third quarter is currently 3.4%, with the bottom line being that economic expansion continues.
Why are the upcoming data so strong? Because the factors favorable to the economy are increasing:
The Federal Reserve is dovish.
High stock prices, high housing prices, and tight credit spreads.
Open public and private financing markets.
The CHIPS Act, IRA, Infrastructure Act, and defense spending continue to support economic growth.
Locking in low interest rates, consumers have low debt repayment costs.
Locking in low interest rates, businesses have low debt repayment costs.
Geopolitical risks are easing, and the Middle East is starting to calm down.
The uncertainty of the U.S. election will soon pass.
Spending on artificial intelligence, data centers, and energy transition continues to grow strongly.
There are signs of rebound in construction orders after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September.
These 10 favorable factors increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve changing its policy at the November meeting.
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- KSR·09:38👍LikeReport