My Top 10 Predictions for Global Financial Markets in 2024
In 2023, all kinds of financial products on a global scale have undergone tremendous challenges. We have also seen many unprecedented financial phenomena. This requires us, as a cross-border financial institution, to carefully observe and meditate. It seems like only yesterday that I was writing about the top ten predictions for 2023, but the year has passed quickly.I remember when I first joined Morgan Stanley to work on Wall Street after graduating with a Ph.D. from the University of Lausanne in Switzerland over two decades ago. Each year-end, we would study the top ten global economic predictions for the coming year by the company's Chief US Economist, Byron Wien. The debates between him and Steven Roach, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist at the time, on macroeconomic topics were immense
China's growth has finally bottomed out, but is not the time to invest in Chinese equities.
China's growth has finally bottomed out, and a rare increase in the deficit this year suggests better prospects for growth in the near term. In 2024, we expect GDP growth of 4.5%, a balance between economic growth and deleveraging, while waiting for more policy signals. While more infrastructure stimulus should mitigate downside risks, sharp structural problems such as underconsumption and debt deleveraging will still take time and more difficult policy decisions to address.Therefore, we do not think that China's foreign exchange and interest rates will shine. If the strong dollar trend continues, the need to restructure debt while keeping domestic interest rates low will continue to limit the exchange rate of RMB. We expect only a mild bull steep rebound in RMB interest rates. With the is
Powell of the Fed Chair: the U.S. economy is much stronger than we expected
Economic Club of New York welcomes the Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell to give a lunch speech today! He is laser focused on getting inflation down to 2%. He spoke about the stronger than expected consumption and labor market in the U.S. Powell of the Fed Chair: the U.S. economy is much stronger than we expected, given the high interest rate level…ImageImageImageImage
How the Israeli-Hamas Conflict Could Impact Global Financial Market？
Hello Tigers,This article was jointly written by Kevin Chen, chief economist of Horizon Financial, adjunct professor at New York University, and Cao Huining, professor at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business.1. Crude oil, gold and foreign exchange markets On Saturday, October 7, after the outbreak of conflict, crude oil futures opened with a sharp 4.5% gain on Sunday night. However, many fund managers and sell-side analysts on Wall Street generally felt that the crude oil market's response was below expectations.The reaction appears to be lower than before for several reasons:Firstly, crude oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2312(CLmain)$ prices have already risen sharply in September due to production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Compared
I don’t see any reason for the Fed to hike rate again.
Treasury yields dropped sharply, with the 2-year rate dipping below 5%. Market is calling the Fed bluff.ImageBond yields tend to peak around the time of the last Fed rate hike. I don’t expect any more rate hikes, which is why I turned positive on bonds recently.ImageCorporate earnings are going down. CEOs will talk about new challenges during their Q3 calls.I don’t see any reason for the Fed to hike rate again. If anything, rate cuts are coming for the U.S., Canada, Eurozone, and England…
The UAW strike ushered in a good show: two presidents will visit Detroit
After Trump reported that he would go to Detroit on September 27 to deliver a speech to the United Auto Workers.US. President Biden announced on social media that he will join members of the United Auto Workers in Detroit on the picket line on Tuesday.Biden likes to call himself the most pro-union president, and visiting striking workers — a highly unusual move for a president — is sure to send a strong message.“On Tuesday, I will be heading to Michigan to join the picket lines in solidarity with the men and women of the UAW as they fight for the value they create,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter). “Now is the time for a win-win deal , keeping the U.S. auto manufacturing industry thriving through good-paying UAW jobs."Biden to join UAW pickets in Detroit as strike intensifiesUAW President
The inflation is not likely to get to 2% before 2025
Insightful speech at @nyuniversity by Dr. Phillip Lane, Chief Economist of @ecb. The inflation is declining, but not likely to get to 2% before 2025. A sharp decline in credit activities in Eurozone is happening due to the banks’ cautious with lending. Very different from US.ImageUS Housing Starts fell 11.3% m/m to 1.283 million, the lowest since June 2020 as 7.5% mortgage rates reduced demand. The Home Affordability Index is the lowest since Bloomberg records began in 1986, and has fallen at the fastest pace on record.The data was last recorded at the end of Q2 when 30 year mortgage rates were 7.15% compared with 7.59% today.
No Recession Fears or Rate Cuts in 2023? Spotlight on 3 Industries for H2 2023
Hello TigersI am the Chief Economist at Horizon Financial Group and haveI have 12 years of experience as a visiting professor at New York College.Below are some of my expected views on the U.S. economy and U.S. equities in the second half of the year.The real impact of Fitch's downgrade of U.S. government bonds on the financial market is not smallIn the short term (3-6 months), there is no hope for an interest rate cut by the FedThank you to the IRA Act to stimulate the return of U.S. manufacturing, it is currently possible NOT THE TIME to predict a recessionIn H223, we are bullish on the oversold sectors of biotech, financial technology, and REITs, which are supported by AI technologyDisclaimer: The views in this article are for communication purposes only and not as direct investment adv
$3.3 billion New Purchase, One Reason for Buffett Keep Adding Energy Assets!
Buffett made a move, and $3.3 billion increased the energy concept again! Why he likes energy assets this much?On Monday, July 10, Eastern Time, according to Reuters, Buffett’s $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ Energy Company (BHE GT&S) announced that it had signed an agreement to purchase 50% of limited partnership shares of the Cove Point liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas business held by Dominion Energy .According to regulatory filings, Total transaction value of $3.5 billion, including transaction price ($3.3 billion) and expected proceeds from termination of related interest rate derivatives (approximately $200 million), approximately 50% non-controlling interest held by Dominion Energy 2025 projected EBITDA 10.8 times of US$32
The most popular electric car in the United States now: $Rivian
The most popular electric car in the United States now: $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ , created by students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has swept the United States.The earliest fans of Tesla Motors have all turned into R fans. After the company's new plant in Georgia is completed, the annual output is 400,000 vehicles [good], and the company's stock price also soared.What is the advantage of $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ over $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ?Americans think that the electric pickup truck $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Size is relatively large, can hold skis, can tow a camper, and has great po