Weekly Macro Themes report
This week I covered the following topics/ideas: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$
1. Credit Spreads: Credit spreads are at expensive levels (echoing trends in equities), and while supported by rate cuts + economic resilience; face short-term technical and medium-term macro divergences.
2. REITs: REITs see remaining upside from still somber sentiment and relative value, but overbought conditions and expensive absolute valuations have seen the balance of risk deteriorate notably for REITs.
3. Tech Stocks: There are a number of similarities + differences vs the dot com bubble for tech stocks, but valuations are clearly getting excessive; and while maybe justifiable, represent risk (of disappointment).
4. GSV vs ULG: Continue to favor Global Small Value vs US Large Growth on compelling relative value, but still a waiting game on technicals as no sign of a turn is in yet.
5. Defensive Value: Remain bullish on defensives (healthcare, staples, utilities) as a key part of value vs growth, given cheap relative value, light allocations, defensive characteristics.
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