To The Moon

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ There's been much excitement about AI over the last year or so. Many tech stocks have gone along for the ride. But $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ by far has been the primary beneficiary of this enthusiasm for AI. With AMD the AI wave has just accelerated their long planned revival of GPU. Insatiable demand has breached NVDA's incumbent market defenses. It's now open field running for AMD rather than trench warfare. This enables AMD to achieve in 2 years what otherwise may have taken 5 or more years.

AMD has a clear technical lead with chiplets over NVDA and that gap will only widen. Jensen will soon regret this. NVDA is in trouble but the market doesn't know it yet. NVDA launches Rubin in 2026 which is too soon for them to use a chiplet design. So monolithic Rubin will be competing with AMD's chiplet-based CDNA "Next" AI beast MI400. AMD will steamroll NVDA just like what happened with $Intel(INTC)$ . Facing such a challenge might force NVDA to abandon hardware development after Rubin and pivot to open software rather than slug it out with AMD. But in any event NVDA will be dislodged from their monopoly perch. CUDA mono-culture will be replaced with a diverse and vibrant AI ecosystem.

In the bigger picture, regardless of what happens to AI, the path AMD is on will allow them to be a much larger company than today. Most of INTC's market share is up for grabs and will contribute to AMD's revenue soon enough. INTC's woeful slow motion implosion is underway and benefits AMD's ascension. AMD also has more irons in the fire. XLNX brings embedded which is a large untapped market for AMD. Consoles and embedded are near full ebb now but will soon begin new cycles. There's lots of upside coming.

In the short term the market reflects fear and greed. Over the longer term the market reflects fundamentals. AMD is down from all-time highs but fundamentals remain intact. So for anyone not already invested in AMD, now is a relatively good time to begin a position. AMD will have much higher revenue in 5 years whether AI booms or busts.