To The Moon

$S&P 500 ETF (SPY)$
With the U.S. election and FOMC meeting this week, markets are poised for turbulence. Based on recent SPY positioning, the initial target appears to be a pullback towards $560.

For existing longs, one could sell calls and buy puts as a collar, e.g. Sell $570 calls, Buy $560 or lower strike puts. Non-holders could consider a bear put spread like Buy $560 puts, Sell $540 puts.

$Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)$
QQQ is set to follow suit with a retracement targeting $480.

$Nvidia (NVDA)$
While NVDA's Dow inclusion is a positive, it remains beholden to broader market forces this week. The November $150 calls saw significant seller flow last week:
Sell $NVDA 20241108 150.0 CALL$ 

Of greater concern, put open interest is building abnormally in the $70 strike area, a vastly different profile compared to previous drawdowns. This could signal institutions are bracing for a volatility spike, i.e. a flash crash scenario.

Longer-term though, $120 should offer solid support. Put sales like the $120 or lower strikes could appeal:
Sell $NVDA 20241115 120.0 PUT$ 

No need to panic excessively, simply reduce gross exposures prudently.

$Tesla (TSLA)$
TSLA put open interest is amassing in a similar pattern to NVDA, with deep out-of-the-money put strikes hinting at crash hedging.

Call open interest is more intriguing. The November $275 calls saw a 15,000 contract block trade:
$TSLA 20241115 275.0 CALL$ 

Based on the order flow, both buyers and sellers were involved, likely speculative positioning around a potential Trump re-election.

$Super Micro Computer (SMCI)$
Super Micro reports earnings this week. Below are the open interest changes and unresolved positions across the November options:

(Open Interest Details)

The complete absence of front month call buying indicates the selling has not been exhausted yet. Two sizeable put trades also caught my eye:

A buyer accumulated over 10,000 contracts in the December $22 puts:
Buy $SMCI 20241220 22.0 PUT$ 

While a seller unloaded over 20,000 contracts in the June 2025 $14 puts:
Sell $SMCI 20250620 14.0 PUT$ 

Conclusion remains the same - too premature to start building long exposure.