To The Moon

AI Barometer.

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ has been the center of attention of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

As per financial experts’ opinions, its earnings are seen as a key indicator of the health of the AI industry.

According to Reuters, the 2nd most valuable company in the world, dominates the AI chip design & software market, with a whooping market share of 80% to 95%.

Below charts the rise of Nvidia’s quarterly earnings from Q1 2021 to Q2 2025.

Q2 Earnings Recap.

On 28 Aug 2024, Nvidia reported $30 billion in Q2 revenue for FY 2025. (see above)

It has (again) exceeded Wall Street estimates of $28.7 billion by about +4.5%.

This beat on earnings estimates arrived at a crucial time, as Wall Street analysts have begun to question:

• If the current hype around AI is a bubble on the verge of bursting ?

• And, whether Generative AI will actually be worth the significant capital invested in it so far.

Nvidia’s Q2 2025 revenue of $30 billion is both a +15% QoQ gain and a +122% YoY gain.

While the numbers were impressive, the quarterly revenue growth is starting to show signs of slowing momentum.

Looking at Nvidia’s past 3 quarters’ growth rates:

• Q1 2025 - 18%.

• Q4 2024 - 22%.

• Q3 2024 - 34%.

Nevertheless, Nvidia’s AI chips are still in high demand, growing faster than previous tech trends like the internet or cloud computing.

Big tech companies are early adopters and leading the charge, with AI still in its nascent stage.

Revenue Source.

Nvidia’s main source of revenue comes from its data center business, that includes its AI processors.

Its data center generated a record $26.3 billion in Q2 2025, accounting for 88% of the AI giant’s total revenue. (see above)

Revenue Outlook.

Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said the company expects to ship “several billion dollars” of Blackwell revenue in the 4th quarter of fiscal 2025.

Demand Outlook & Forecast.

If Spears, Chief investment officer, Ivana Delevska post is any accurate: (see below)

Orders for Nvidia’s Hopper H100 were averaging in the 10-30Ks in Year 2023 when it was introduced. (see above)

Case of rising Blackwell.

Nvidia’s Blackwell orders are coming in the 100Ks compared to the Hopper in the 10Ks. (see above)

The market is finally waking up to this.

Additionally, recent news/events support the thesis:

• Foxconn CEO Young Liu, said demand for Blackwell is "crazy" with Foxconn adding a new facility in Mexico to satisfy Blackwell orders

• Supermicro said it is shipping over 100K GPUs per quarter (didn't cite Blackwell, but not much else out there)

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$ announced that Azure is the first cloud service to run the Blackwell system GB200

• On volume side, $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ has implied that they are doubling their packaging capacity from 40K per month to 80-100K per month, exiting 2025. in terms of GPU capacity.

• With that, it implies that Blackwell should be exiting the year at 2 million units per quarter.

The Blackwell.

All the good news concerning Nvidia’s next generation AI chip - The Blackwell is filing in at the nick of time.

Unveiled in March 2024, the Blackwell was supposed to be delivered from Q2 2024.

Shipment was delayed, owing to design fault that has been rectificed and confirmed by Nvidia, CEO Jensen Huang. (see above)

With delivery slated from Q4 2024 (like now !), the big money is starting to roll in.

Q3 Earnings Forecast.

With revenue from The Blackwell only coming in from 2024’s closing quarter, what will be Nvidia’s Q3 earnings on Thu, 20 Nov 2024?

Based on analysts’ forecasts, here’s the overall consensus.

Q3 2025 Estimates:

• Earnings per share (EPS) : $0.69 to $0.74 per share. It will be a +72.5% to +85% YoY gain from $0.40 (Q3 2024).

• Revenue : $32.9 billion. It will be a +81.57% YoY gain from $18.12 billion (Q3 2024).

Price Target - Forecast

Based on 42 analysts’ assessments, the possible target prices are:

• High - $200 per share. This represents a +47.74% upside to Fri, 01 Nov 2024 closing of $135.37.

• Average - $153.86; representing a +13.66% upside.

• Low - $90; a possible -33.52% downside, taking into account analysts’ forecast of a possible US economy downturn in the next 12 months.

On Fri, 08 Nov 2024, Nvidia will officially replace $Intel(INTC)$ on the Dow Jones index. Nvidia’s average $153.86 per share seems attainable, in the short to mid-term.

Case in point:

• On 17 Nov 2020, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ stock price rose >10% after the S&P Dow Jones Index Committee announced that the car maker will be added to the S&P 500 index in December 2020.

• One year on, the EV maker's stock continued to surge another +29%, outperforming the S&P 500 index by 6.0%.

My thots:

• Will not focus on Tesla’s stock price increment post S&P 500 inclusion.

• This is because it was the start of Tesla’s golden period, where global demand for its EVs outstripped supply, thanks to monopoly advantage.

Do you think Nvidia’s price target $153.86 is realistic ?

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Give a like & help to repost ok. Thanks.

• SMCI Crash on Weak Q3 & Serious Audit Issues.

• SMCI Deserves Falling Stock Price & Delisting ?

• TSLA hits SELL Trigger. Earnings hype wear off.

• Do you think Nvidia will be able to dethrone Apple from the #1 spot, permanently ?

• Do you think Nvidia will be able to hit the price target predicted by Wall Street analysts ?

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