To The Moon

My Investing Muse (18Nov24)

Layoffs & Closure news

• Marriott starts to Lay Off Corporate Employees which may result in hundreds of employees exiting. The cuts are worldwide and affect “above-property” positions, which refer to people at the corporate level rather than those working in hotels. - Skift

• FuelCell Energy to lay off 13% of workforce to reduce operating costs - Reuters

• US supermajor to lay off nearly 400 workers following $64 billion merger - Upstream online

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What is going on in San Francisco? Layoff news seems relentless. Some of the layoffs are international. Can any advise on new job openings in SF or California? - SF Gate

• Advance Auto Parts, a major supplier of aftermarket replacement parts and accessories, announced plans to close 700 stores by mid-2025, closing 523 corporate-owned stores, 4 distribution centers, and leaving 204 locations. - SF Gate

• San Francisco tech company Forward, once worth $1B, abruptly shuts down. Nearly 200 workers are set to lose their jobs. A 2021 funding round featured several blue-chip Silicon Valley investors and valued Forward at over $1 billion. - SF Gate

• Chegg announced the new layoff round, which will hit 21% of its workforce. Chegg lost more than $212 million from July through September, blaming Google and AI. The power of disruption? - SF Gate

• AMD to lay off 4% of workforce, or about 1,000 employees to gain a stronger foothold in the growing artificial intelligence chip space dominated by Nvidia. How does one gain AI chip space by layoffs?

• In Woodbridge, Virginia, LongHorn Steakhouse takes over an old TGI Fridays. In Watertown, New York, a former Red Lobster is being converted to a Northern Credit Union bank. Chick-fil-A is taking over a shuttered Red Lobster in Naples, Florida. - CNN

• Reuters - 2023 was a brutal year for the journalism industry, with at least 8,000 job cuts in the UK, US and Canada. The tide continued in 2024, with around 1,000 people affected by closures and rounds of redundancies in January alone. - Press Gazette UK

• Meta, IBM, Google, and Microsoft; finance leaders like Goldman Sachs, Citi, and BlackRock; accounting firms like PwC; entertainment behemoths like Pixar and Paramount; and corporate giants like Tesla, Dow, and Nike have all announced layoffs. - Business Insider

• Nissan shares slump after it announces 9,000 job cuts and a plan to slash production - CNN

• CNN staffers 'deeply frustrated' as looming budget cuts, layoffs set to impact struggling network - Fox News

Is Mainstream Media the next facing disruption?

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Lots of articles on how MSNBC's audience has completely collapsed -- disappeared -- once Kamala lost and the got disillusioned, but the full extent is shocking. Their prime-time shows can't even get 75k people watching in the key demo (18-54). Weekend shows don't even get 30k! - X user Glenn Greenwald

Who do they turn to after exiting the legacy media? Is X the next destination? What other options do we have?

The stubborn inflation

CPI rising but “as expected”. Total +2.6% (up from 2.4% last month). Core +3.3%. Shelter coming in HOT at +4.9%, transports still STICKY at +8.2%, but moderating. Services are the stickiest inflation. Salaries & rents always want to “catch up” to goods. Thus hot & sticky! X user - Wasteland Capital

Latest CPI - inflation remains stubborn. Will the Fed continue to pivot?

The market is predicting more interest rate cuts in the coming months. Will the Fed be guided by data? Is the $35.8 trillion debt burdening the economy? Are the $10 trillion treasuries (requiring refinancing in 2025) on the Fed’s mind?

Inflation is stubborn. It will be tough to make the next call as the Fed balances the data from Inflation (PCE), unemployment and GDP.

My final thoughts

With the USA election out of the way, it will be back to business as usual. The current administration remains in control for the next few weeks. President elect Trump is putting together his (somewhat controversial) team. We can expect some challenges and disruptions.

The recent political high will be met with the reality of life and the challenges faced by global economy. China does not represent the global economy but they remain one of the biggest manufacturers of the world.

According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics post, China’s manufacturing has seen a decline since May 2024. Oil can be seen as a forward indicator of market demand.

Some have predicted tough days ahead. I am keeping my eyes on the banking sector, commercial real estate and the situation with debt. It is possible for a market to surge against a backdrop of weakening fundamentals. Let us research before investing.

@TigerStars

$.SPX(.SPX)$