To The Moon

The stock market experienced some consolidation activity following previous week's surge. On last Friday (15 Nov) we saw the market closed with significant losses. The decline was due to the concerns over interest rates and the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts.

S&P 500 reached a record high on Monday, closing above 6,000 for the first time, but ended the week 2.1% lower. But since the election results, the S&P 500 remains 1.5% higher. We saw broad-based selling pressure which affects the chipmakers and mega caps. The equal-weighted S&P 500 ended 1.7% than the previous week.

Large-cap technology stocks, especially semiconductor-related names, experienced outsized declines. The New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for November showed a strong reading of 31.2, indicating expansion. Retail sales increased by 0.4% month-over-month in October.

Last week declines was partly due to remarks by Fed Chair Powell which emphasized that the economy is not signaling an urgent need to lower rates. Data supported Powell's comments, with total CPI up 2.6% year-over-year and core CPI unchanged at 3.3%. Total PPI increased to 2.4% year-over-year, with the index for final demand, excluding food and energy, rising to 3.1% year-over-year.

Weekly jobless claims remained low, indicating a strong labor market that may lead to increased consumer spending and inflationary pressure. Retail sales were strong in October, bolstered by upward revisions in September data.

Note Yield Ended Higher

Last week's negative market bias was less extreme compared to the previous week's surge. Concerns over interest rates and speculation that the Federal Reserve may be more cautious with rate cuts contributed to the market's performance. The 10-year yield settled at 4.445%, 12 basis points higher than the previous Friday, while the 2-year yield settled five basis points higher at 4.331%.

Only Three S&P 500 Sectors Ended In The Green.

On last Friday (15 Nov), only three sectors ended in the green with Utilities up 1.47%, Financials up 0.53% and Real Estate up 0.16%, this makes only three sector of the S&P 500 closed higher last week.

The other eight sectors have lossed ranging from 1.1% to 5.5%. The energy sector (+1.05%), financial sector (+1.38%) and Utilities (+0.09%) were the only sectors in positive territory.

The health care sector (-5.55%) suffered the largest loss, followed by the information technology sector (-3.56%). Health care stocks faced challenges, especially after President-elect Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a vaccine skeptic, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.

Chipmakers also struggled, particularly after Applied Materials (AMAT) released fiscal Q1 guidance that did not meet market expectations.

Stocks To Watch

$CME Bitcoin - main 2411(BTCmain)$ has reached a historic peak, climbing to an all-time high above $93K, with its market cap soaring to $1.8 trillion. The cryptocurrency sector collectively achieved a market cap of $2.9 trillion, surpassing its previous 2021 peak. Bitcoin now commands 62% of the total crypto market, a significant increase from its 42% share in November 2021. Ethereum (ETH-USD), however, has not yet returned to its 2021 levels, holding about 14% of the market. This surge comes as investors anticipate a crypto-friendly approach from the incoming Trump administration.

So to take advantage of the opportunities presented by this surge, but do take note of the volatilities that might happen this week, we can look at crypto stocks like Coinbase Global (COIN) $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ and mining stock, $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$

If we looked at how the Bitcoin price movement have affected the Bitcoin mining stock like MARA, we would noticed that short-term and long-term MA have made a crossover, we can see that this might be a small consolidation and as we see more potential of a higher Bitcoin price, we might see another attempt by MARA to make a move towards its highs of $26.

MTF is showing uptrend and MACD is still in an upside movement.

Pharmaceutical and biotech stocks faced a downturn following the announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services. Kennedy Jr.'s skepticism towards vaccines and his plans to reform the FDA have created apprehension among investors. Notably, $Pfizer(PFE)$ shares fell 4%, while AstraZeneca (AZN) and GSK (GSK) experienced declines of 3% and 2%, respectively. Smaller vaccine producers like Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY) and BioNTech (BNTX) also saw significant drops.

I would think we need to be aware of the decline in the healthcare sector after we saw apprehension among investors. PFE stock price have reacted very negatively to it, having trade way below the short-term and long-term MA period.

And MACD is making a very clear downside movement, and MTF is giving a very weak trend downside, so I think we need to give not only PFE some caution, but the entire healthcare sector.

Juniper Networks (JNPR) saw a 5% decline amid reports of the Department of Justice reviewing its proposed $14 billion sale to Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE). Speculation about the DOJ's decision has intensified, with some traders noting the presence of an HPE corporate jet in Washington, D.C., potentially indicating discussions about the deal.

$Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ surged 46.6% following a landmark agreement with American Electric Power (AEP) for up to 1 GW of solid oxide fuel cells. This deal, the largest of its kind, marks a significant step in addressing energy demands for data centers and other large users.

I think even though there have been a more than 40% surge for BE, there should be opportunities as I am expecting a pullback to near $18 to $20 for the stock price, because MACD is still strong in upside movement, and we are not seeing that MTF is giving a strong uptrend signal.

So this stock might be something we can look at to invest as energy sector have gained 1.05% over the last week, and I believe this sector should continue to do well with strong performance from some energy names.

Summary

I believe we might still see a weak start to a new week on Monday (18 Nov) as investors continue to grapple with concerns over Fed cautious stance on rate cuts as the CME Fed Watch tool is showing that the percentage for a 25 basis points have drop by 3% from 1 week (08 NOv) from 64.6% to 61.9%.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think market would continue to experience consolidation as investors remain concerned over interest rates.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.