To The Moon

There were not many big events last week, but the market was not small at all. Since the US election, nothing in the financial market has risen smoothly except the US dollar and Bitcoin, and even the varieties that Trump intends to suppress have fallen one after another.

At present, the market is still in the honeymoon period when the market expects the effectiveness of Trump's policies, and the main line has not changed much, which means that before Trump really takes office, strong varieties will continue to be strong, while weak varieties are more likely to continue to fall. Everyone should pay attention to it.

The chairman of the Federal Reserve said at an event in Dallas last week that the current recovery momentum of the U.S. economy is good, the labor market is stable, and although inflation has dropped, it is still facing considerable pressure. This comment shows that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates in future policy adjustments, which leads to a significant reduction in market expectations for a December interest rate cut, which in turn aggravates investors' nervousness, resulting in a decline in U.S. stocks and gold. Before the next interest rate meeting, it is expected that the market fundamentals will not change much, and everyone can trade according to the technical characteristics of each variety.

Technical indicators of US stock index

Looking at technical indicators, the S&P shall prevail. The U.S. stock index is still slowly crawling along the rising channel of the 20-week moving average. Near the end of the year, it is in the cycle of the handover between the old and the new presidents. The stock index at this stage generally has too much volatility, and it does not rise much or fall deeply.

So let's track the stock index along the 20-week moving average as a long-short watershed. However, attention should be paid to the alternation of strength and weakness between indexes. The Dow is strong and the Nasdaq is weak. As Trump takes office, it will be a mid-to long-term characteristic. Everyone should pay attention to adjusting the position layout.

Possible declines and key positions of gold

The performance of gold last week was beyond many people's expectations. It fell all the way, and it was rare that there was no day in the middle of the week that closed up and rebounded.

Since Trump has just taken office, the geopolitical part feels that it will relatively calm down, and the price of gold has also greatly reduced the war premium. Therefore, this wave of gold price adjustment is not considered to be completely over.

As my article on November 4th suggested, since this round of gold price decline occurred before and after Trump won the election, its trend is similar to that of gold in 2016. After Trump won the election in 2016, the price of gold showed a downward trend for seven consecutive weeks (during which the weekly K-line did not rebound for a week). It was not until the end of that year that the price of gold bottomed out and rose again in the coming year.

If the trend of 2016 is repeated in 2024 this year, at least until the end of this year, gold will not perform very well, and may even continue to fall. After Trump was elected in 2016, the price of gold fell by 16%. Assuming that the situation is repeated this year, the price of gold will continue to fall around 2,350 at a high of 2,800 points. Therefore, friends who plan to bargain-hunting gold may wish to wait, maybe there is a better entry position, so don't worry.

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