SMCI Rose +31% but Still In Danger !
The Comeback Kid ?
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ stock have staged a ‘remarkable recovery’ of sort since Fri, 15 Nov 2024.
On Tue, 19 Nov 2024, it soared as the server maker’s plan to stay listed on the Nasdaq exchange appeared to soothe investors.
In just over 2 days, it has re-gained $9.69 or +52.15% to $28.27 per share: (see below)
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By end Monday, it rose by +15.93% ($2.96).
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By end Tuesday, it rose by +31.24% ($6.73).
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SMCI bottomed last Thu, 14 Nov 2024 at $18.01 per share.
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By Fri, 15 Nov 2024, it added $0.57 to its Thursday closing price.
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When trading resumed this week, it climbed exponentially.
According to Dow Jones Market Data, SMCI shares were on pace for their largest percentage increase since Feb. 22.
Based on Tuesday performance, the server maker was the top performer in both S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq-100 index.
What Have Transpired ?
Late Monday, Super Micro said in a statement that it had hired BDO USA as an independent auditor.
It has also submitted a plan to the Nasdaq for a time extension so that it could regain compliance with the stock market’s listing requirements.
When contacted by Barron’s, the Nasdaq declined to comment.
Super Micro said it should now be able to complete:
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Its annual 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 Jun 2024.
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Its 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 Sep 2024.
Its failure to file both those forms on time is what has put it at risk of being delisted from the Nasdaq.
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson has commented:
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Getting an auditor is clearly a positive step. That was the question mark.
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He has rated SMCI as Neutral with a $24 price target.
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Risks still loom for SMCI, even after getting a new auditor.
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There exists a possibility that BDO, the new auditor — could find a need to rework the company’s financials, which could introduce even more delay and prevent Super Micro from meeting its filing deadline with the Nasdaq.
Poor punctuality is not the only issue Super Micro is grappling with.
Just in late August 2024, short seller Hindenburg Research took aim at the server maker.
Since the report, investors have also been fretting about its deteriorating profit margins.
At the time, Super Micro said does not comment on “rumors and speculation.
Neither did SMCI reply to a Barron’s request for comment on Tuesday.
My viewpoints: (mine only)
I think there is more upside risks than rewards, facing SMCI.
To get a complete picture of SMCI, click to read the following post (repost to share ok !) :
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05 Nov 2024 - SMCI Deserves Falling Stock Price & Delisting ?
They managed to engage BDO USA as their replacement auditor. How does that stack up ?
BDO USA.
Based on research - BDO is a shady “mid-tier” audit firm in the US. The Public Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) has issued a report that stated 86% of the audits by BDO that PCAOB inspected were deficient.
** This means that BDO had failed to collect evidence to support at least part of its audit conclusion.
With that, question of finesse comes to mind:
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Will BDO USA be able to identify the same malpractices SMCI’s management have undertaken that made Ernst & Young quit as their auditor?
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Will BDO USA risk its reputation by approving SMCI's confusing financial statements?
Appointing an accounting firm is only the beginning.
Whether BDO USA is able to fulfill its tasks remains outstanding until SMCI submits its 10-K and 10-Q punctually.
Audit Firm - New Discovery.
While researching for this post, I stumbled upon new information regarding SMCI’s auditors.
Certainly, looks like there’s more to it than meets the eye.
Super Micro Computer’s original auditor was another Big 4 - Deloitte & Touche.
Deloitte had been SMCI’s auditor for many years before it was fired at the end of its FY 2023 and replaced by Ernst & Young (EY).
On 15 March 2023, EY was engaged to audit SMCI's financial statements for the fiscal year ending 30 Jun 2024.
Who would have thought that 18 months into the job, EY would resigned in October 2024, citing concerns over the company's internal controls, lack of transparency and governance.
Did BDO USA bite off more than it could chew?
Business Outflow.
(1) Weak Current Quarter Outlook.
In my post, dated 5 Nov 2024 (click here ! to read, repost to share ok), SMCI has held an informal conference of sort to share their “unaudited” results despite failing to file its 10-K and 10-Q proceedings.
The outlook shared for current quarter is weak. Given its already anticipated earnings weaknesses, its stock price should reflect that.
Any investor/s taking a chance on SMCI should be fully aware.
(2) Unfulfilled Demand ?
Nvidia has revealed that demand for its new chip has far outstripped supply, despite $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ trying its best to ramp up output.
When disaster struck SMCI from late August 2024, rumours have it that $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ have diverted its SMCI-bout Blackwell chips to other customers, to prevent supply chain disruptions. (see above)
Do not take it in the wrong way - it is only business.
(3) Unfulfilled Supply ?
Apart from its supplier diverting its purchases away, SMCI also encountered customer’s orders cancellations. (see below)
It was reported that xAI, Elon Musk’s AI startup, has shifted all AI server orders from troubled SMCI to $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$.
Historically, both Dell and SMCI used to supply computer peripherals to Musk’s companies — xAI and Tesla.
Mr CEO even went to events with SMCI’s boss, Charles Liang.
When US’s Dept of Justice (DOJ) started investigating SMCI for cooking its books and possibly sending stuff to China & Russia, Mr CEO’s companies stopped buying from them.
This could imply that SMCI might lose up to $6 billion or more in business. (see above)
(4) Compliance Investigation.
On 26 Sep 2024, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that :
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US’s Dept of Justice (DOJ) is investigating SMCI, a month after short-seller Hindenburg Research alleged "accounting manipulation".
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The probe was at an early stage and that a prosecutor at a US attorney's office had contacted people who may be holding relevant information, cited people familiar with the matter.
Until DOJ issues a statement dismissing possible action against SMCI, any DOJ action/s brought upon SMCI will cause SMCI to come crashing down.
SMCI faces a lot of headwinds in the near term. Is it still a Buy ? Speculate by all means but dispel any thoughts of holding the stock and hoping for a full restoration. It will be wishful thinking.
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Do you think SMCI speculator will push the stock higher today, think so !
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Do you think SMCI will be delisted (again!) from US exchange; given all the allegations against it?
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On the basis of what you have outlined it appears that the ship has sailed for what was once a market leader that has fallen into the wasteland and barely breathing 🐊
Let's see how the company addresses its accounting issues.
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