To The Moon

I. Performance and Valuation of Global Equity Indices

Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers

II. Key Market Themes

i. Trump’s Cabinet Formation is Complete: What Does the Treasury Secretary Choice Mean for the Future Macroeconomic Landscape?

• Recently, the highly anticipated position of U.S. Treasury Secretary in the new administration was finalized. Trump ultimately did not choose Lutnick, strongly recommended by Musk, but instead nominated Key Square founder and Soros Fund CIO, Bessent. Comparatively, Bessent is a staunch supporter of liberal economics, aligning with Trump on policies such as broad tariffs, tax reform, and financial deregulation, though he is less radical than Lutnick.

• Specifically, he has proposed the “3-3-3 Policy” to Trump, which entails reducing the federal budget deficit from the current over 6% of GDP to 3%, stimulating GDP growth to 3% through policy easing, and increasing daily oil production by 3 million barrels. Additionally, Bessent has been consistently critical of the current Federal Reserve and has even suggested a “shadow Fed Chair” policy to influence future monetary strategies.

• We believe Bessent’s appointment strikes a balance between the Trump administration and market expectations. Based on current information, his resolve to apply pressure on tariffs should not be underestimated, but neither should there be excessive concern about sweeping reforms. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to newly introduced fiscal policies and their potential impact on the fragile economic and employment landscape of the past two years.

Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers

ii. NVIDIA’s Earnings Guidance Falls Short of Buy-Side Expectations: Is AI Application Growth Shifting the Investment Strategy?

• Last week, NVIDIA $英伟达(NVDA)$ released its Q3 earnings report. Quarterly revenue reached $35 billion, up 93.5% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations. AI-related data center revenue accounted for 87%, growing 112% year-over-year. Meanwhile, gross margin remained stable at 75%, meeting expectations. However, Q4 revenue guidance was approximately $37.5 billion, slightly below the buy-side’s optimal estimate of $38 billion, sparking market skepticism and sell-offs.

• The day after the earnings release, NVIDIA’s stock experienced significant intraday volatility, opening with a surge past $152, only to retreat to 140, marking an 8% intraday swing. This reflects the market’s divided reaction to the results. Based on past trends, NVIDIA’s forward guidance is typically conservative, and Wall Street remains cautious. Undeniably, demand remains explosive; while the performance of the B-series has greatly improved, H-series demand has yet to peak, suggesting revenue may continue to grow sequentially.

Data Source: Bloomberg, compiled by Tiger Brokers

• On the same day, the Q3 earnings report from Snowflake $Snowflake(SNOW)$ , a key player in AI infrastructure applications, was even more exciting. Both revenue and earnings beat expectations, with a substantial upward revision of its 2025 revenue outlook, driving a single-day stock surge of over 30%. Additionally, Goldman Sachs reported that companies linked to AI applications with revenue generation (GSCBAIP3) showed improved performance during the recent Q3 earnings season, outperforming the broader market by about 5%.

• In fact, the market has long been divided over the evolution of AI. From a developmental perspective, profit distribution will inevitably flow from upstream chips to midstream infrastructure and downstream consumer applications. Currently, NVIDIA remains the most certain player in AI, but signs of downstream development are emerging, suggesting that opportunities in midstream and downstream AI may drive the next wave of growth.

Data Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Disclaimer

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