To The Moon

On Sun, 01 Dec 2024, stock futures were slightly lower.

This week, investors will be looking at fresh job data to understand the US economy.

They are also looking for clues on the Fed's next move on interest rates cut, that will be announced on Wed,18 Dec 2024.

At 6:10 p.m. ET on Sunday:

• DJIA futures were down 43 points, or -0.1%.

• S&P 500 futures were down less than -0.1%.

• Nasdaq futures fell -0.1%.

US market - last week of November 2024 performances

Overall, the 3 main composite indexes were higher, despite a short trading week: (see above)

• DJIA: was up +0.42% (+188.52 to 44,910.65).

• S&P 500: was up +0.56% (+33.64 to 6,032.38).

• Nasdaq: was up +0.83% (+157.69 to 19,218.17)

The 3 main composite indexes’ November 2024 performance::

• DJIA: closed up +7.5% to a new record close of 44,910.65, its largest one-month percentage gain since November 2023, and its 47th record close in 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

• S&P 500: closed up +5.7% to a new record close of 6,032.38 on Friday. Also, its largest monthly percentage gain since November 2023, and its 53rd record close in 2024.

• Nasdaq: closed up +6.2% to close at 19,218.17.

All in all, a remarkable performance for US stock market so far.

Question - with one month to go, will there be opportunity for US market to close even higher, ending 2024 with a big bang.

In my Sun, 01 Dec 2024 post, I have shared a post on the possibility that the December rally may come in short. (click here ! to read, Repost to share ok.)

This week’s economic reports will hold centre court to either reinforce or dispel the ‘weak’ December rally.

Jobs Reports out this week:

• Tue, 03 Dec 2024 - US Jobs opening and Labour turnover survey (JOLTs).

• Wed, 04 Dec 2024 - ADP private sector employment report.

• Thu, 05 Dec 2024 - US weekly jobless claims.

• Fri, 06 Dec 2024 - US Non-farm payroll (NFP).

The Federal Reserve will also publish its latest Beige Book of regional economic conditions from its regional banks on Wednesday.

Fed officials will also be hitting the ground, speaking publicly before the onset of the blackout window starting Sat, 07 Dec 2024 until Thu, 19 Dec 2024, a day after FOMC last meeting in 2024.

• Fed Gov. Christopher J. Waller will discuss the economic outlook at the American Institute for Economic Research Monetary Conference in Washington, D.C.

• Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler will talk about the labor market and monetary policy on Tuesday at the Detroit Economic Club.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak Wednesday at the New York Times DealBook Summit.

US October 2024 - Jobs and Unemployment reports

Non-Farm Payroll - Nov 2024.

All eyes will be on Friday’s Non-farm payroll (NFP) jobs report, after its disappointing October dataset.

Economists polled expect the November report to show a reversal of the dismal October employment report that many believed was heavily impacted by hurricanes and worker strikes ($Boeing(BA)$).

Estimates for November 2024:

• US labour market will add 200,000 jobs, up from October’s 12,000 monthly job additions.

• Unemployment rate is expected to rise by +0.1% to 4.2%.

Magnificent 7 - 2025 Outlook.

With a more optimistic NFP report anticipated, Wall Street strategists:

• Think the S&P 500 could reach between 6,400 & 7,000 points by the end of 2024.

• Remained bullish about US stock market in 2025.

Case for a strong December

Many Wall Street strategists predict a strong bull market to continue until the end of the year.

They also expect more record highs before 2024 is over.

History supports this argument.

Carson Group, Chief markets strategist, Ryan Detrick :

• Points out that strong market performance often continues.

• Since 1985, when the S&P 500 has risen by more than 20% by the end of November, it has gone up in 9 out of 10 Decembers. (see above)

• Since 2000, the S&P 500 has risen every December after a strong rally over the first 11 months of the year.

• He believes the S&P 500 may continue its strong performance from now, until year end.

Barclays, Head of US equity strategy, Venu Krishna noted:

• Big Tech continues to top earnings estimates each quarter.

• As long as earning streak continues, the Big Tech is likely to remain as critical of an EPS growth driver for the S&P 500; just as it did in 2024.

On Wed, 27 Nov 2024, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe highlighted in her research note:

• 6 Big Tech companies have seen earnings revisions for the current quarter come in either (a) flat or (b) higher in the past 30 days.

• This includes Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Meta Platform, Broadcom and Tesla. (see above)

• Only $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Apple(AAPL)$ have their earnings estimates cut more than the S&P 500's -1.2% estimate trim in that time frame.

My viewpoints : (mine only)

In my Fri, 29 Nov 2024 post, I had aired my concerns about overly optimistic analysts on the US market. It's uncertain if this optimism is genuine or new investors’ entrapment. (click here ! for details)

Analysts also failed to consider the impact of the 2024 US election on a potential December 2024 market rally.

As a result, I feel my Sunday post (01 Dec 2024) on a “muted” December rally is a more realistic prediction. (click here ! to read and Repost to share !)

Of course, (openly) I hope my Sunday post will be off-its-mark. That should keep investors happy, including me !

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

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• Do you think this December will be a vibrant or muted affair ?

• Do you think there is sufficient mojo left in Magnificent Seven for a December blast off ?

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