To The Moon

Next week is the beginning of the month, and the non-farm data will come again. The current non-farm data is the basis for the market to speculate on the path of the Fed's interest rate cut. If the data continues to improve, the rate of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will slow down, from the previous expectation of cutting interest rates at every meeting, to cutting interest rates at every other meeting, or even stopping cutting interest rates. This has an impact on the overall trend of commodities.

Gold does not react strongly to the pace of interest rate cuts

From the perspective of impact, the impact on gold and other varieties is not great. The current important impact of gold prices lies in geopolitics, and fluctuations also come from the uncertainty of conflict news.

The sharp rise and fall of gold prices in the first two weeks reflects the market's sentiment towards the war., making the slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts have relatively little impact on gold prices. It is recommended that everyone pay attention to conflict-related news. Technically, the support of the 20-week moving average of gold price is still effective. After the position is broken, let's look at it short (once the position is broken, it will be a large-scale overall adjustment).

The slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts will make it difficult to mobilize inflation expectations

Although after Trump's election, analysts generally believe that tariff policy will raise US inflation indicators. Although Trump is already saying how much tariffs he will increase to relevant countries, so the tariff policy at the time of implementation may be different from the current attitude. There is a certain gap, and the actual impact on inflation is still difficult to judge. The performance of commodities also reflects that the market's expectations for this area are not high.

If the U.S. economy still maintains a good level and the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve slows down, it will be difficult for inflation expectations to rise rapidly, which is not conducive to rising commodity prices. Commodities that like to grind the bottom, such as agricultural products, will continue to fluctuate at the bottom, and it is useless to be anxious.

Whether crude oil can break through the level and fall depends on next week's OPEC meeting

The OPEC + meeting originally scheduled to be held at the end of November has been postponed to Thursday, which also shows that there are major differences in OPEC + 's move to relax production cuts.

On the one hand, the current oil price is indeed not high, and relaxing production cuts will undoubtedly further detriment the oil price; On the other hand, the production reduction policy has been going on for a long time, and some oil-producing countries also hope to relax production reduction and increase market share to increase national revenue. Especially after Trump takes office, he will re-promote oil and gas companies to increase crude oil exploitation. By then, high oil prices and low shares will only harm the interests of OPEC + oil-producing countries. It is better to gradually relax production cuts now to increase profits.

Since next week will be an important meeting for OPEC to discuss whether to postpone the relaxation of production cuts, if it is postponed as scheduled, it will only be in line with market expectations and will have little impact on oil prices. However, once it is no longer postponed, if the production cut is relaxed next year, it will be a big negative for oil prices, and crude oil may break its position and fall. Let's wait and see.

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