Apple Shares Hit Record High, Anticipating Major Product Updates in 2025
$Apple(AAPL)$
Apple is set for major product updates in 2025
Expected first-quarter launches include the iPhone SE4, M4 MacBook Air, iPad 11, iPad Air, and a smart display.
– iPhone SE4: Media reports and supply chain confirmations suggest the iPhone SE4 will launch in March 2025. This highly anticipated budget model will undergo its most significant upgrade since debuting in 2016, adopting a design similar to the iPhone 14 and becoming the first iPhone to feature Apple’s in-house modem chip.
– M4 MacBook Air: Slated for a March release, the new MacBook Air will be equipped with the M4 chip, offer base memory of 16GB, and include a neural engine capable of 380 trillion operations per second.
– iPad 11: The entry-level iPad will see its first update in two years next spring, with Apple Intelligence technology enhancements expected to bring more AI capabilities, although design changes are minimal.
– M3 iPad Air: Apple is developing a new Magic Keyboard for the iPad Air and introducing 90Hz display technology.
– Smart Home Display: As reported by Bloomberg, Apple plans to launch its first smart home device with Apple Intelligence as early as March, featuring a 6-inch screen and leveraging the HomeKit framework for appliance control, video conferencing, and AI-driven navigation, competing with Amazon’s Echo Show and Hub and Google’s Nest Hub.
Mid-year releases may include AirTag 2, Mac Studio, and Mac Pro. Media reports suggest the iPhone 17 series, due in September, will introduce an ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air.
Reports indicate Apple plans to launch a foldable phone in late 2026, with the foldable market expected to grow over 30% that year and continue expanding by 20% in 2027 and 2028.
Analyst Insights
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Wooding reiterated an Overweight rating and a $273 price target on Apple, maintaining it as his Top IT Hardware Pick. He noted that results from the firm’s annual AlphaWise Smartphone Survey are "more positive near term than expected," with next 12-month iPhone upgrade rates improving in the U.S. and China.
Wooding sees Apple Intelligence as an emerging catalyst for iPhone upgrades, with broader availability crucial for unlocking global demand. The survey indicates prospective iPhone owners are willing to pay nearly $9 monthly for unlimited Apple Intelligence access, potentially adding $7 billion to $14 billion in Services revenue by FY27.
Citi maintains a Buy rating with a $255 price target, forecasting that the iPhone 17 upgrade cycle will drive sales in late 2025 and 2026, projecting sales of 227 million units in 2024, 246 million in 2025, and 253 million in 2026.
However, some analysts express concerns over tariffs' adverse impact on Apple. In a mid-November report, Jefferies analyst maintained a Hold rating with a $211.84 target price, citing risks to Apple’s gross margins and discounted cash flow from Trump’s tariff policies. He warned that tariffs could reduce gross margins by 3.0-6.7 percentage points and decrease DCF value by 5-10% if average selling price or volume remains unchanged.
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