$HIMS is a 10x opportunity from here (at bare minimum).
It has a 49% market share and is growing 50% YoY. It's massively undervalued.
Here's why🧵
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1. $HIMS will hit $16 billion in revenue in the next 5-7 years based on these realistic figures 👇
Subscriber count: 10M by 2029 (35% YoY growth)
Average monthly revenue: $130 by 2029 (15% YoY)
That's $15.9 billion in revenue in 2029. This is based solely on monthly subscription.
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2. $HIMS are using their huge FCF to buyback $100 million shares for 2 reasons:
- To offset share dilution from SBC
- Because they believe there's a massive disconnect between the fair value and the future potential of $HIMS.
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3. $HIMS are growing extremely fast with extremely good profitability.
Gross margins decreased slightly to 79%, but they're managing to massively reduce expenses as a % of revenue. This trend will continue.
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4. $HIMS will continue to use MedMatch to increase personalization for their 2M+ subscribers.
As more subscribers come to the platform, MedMatch will improve through network effects.
With increased personalization, $HIMS will have customers staying for longer and spending more money monthly rather than going to their traditional GPs.
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5. $HIMS is growing +50% YoY and priced at only 4x EV/Sales.
Most companies with this growth rate have considerably higher multiples.
Let's say $16 billion revenue is possible by 2030 and the multiple increases to 6x (still low).
You then have a $90+ billion company.
21x from today.
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