NVDA vs AMZN : AI Battle Heats Up & Fast !
My favorite last line from Animal Farm by George Orwell is, “The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.” (see above)
I know Animal Farm is a political satire fiction.
The idea that I wanted to borrow and apply to both $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is, when it comes to pursuing all things artificial intelligence, the lines are starting to blur.
Join me as I explain and share my thoughts.
In the artificial intelligence “chip” arena, the winner is clearly Nvidia.
However, that does not mean other tech titans are sitting on the sidelines.
AMZN’s Challenge.
On Tue, 03 Dec 2024, the tussle for AI chip leadership became evident when Amazon flexed its muscle and announced that its AI chip, Trainium 2, is now available.
An added bonus was that the e-commerce giant and cloud leader had won $Apple(AAPL)$ as a customer.
As a result, Nvidia has been edging lower since then.
Does that mean Nvidia is a buy or sell now ? Hold that thought !
Stock Performance.
Nvidia has been slipping in & out of a buy zone since October. (see above)
Ideally, stocks do not move sideways but rise after breaking out of bases.
Nvidia was in a buy zone after finding support at its 50-day moving average (ma).
Now, its trending below its 20-day and 50-day ma. (see above)
Below are 3 telltale signs, why it is a wait-and-watch.
(a) Trading volume..
Volume for Nvidia has been lighter.
That means big institutions like mutual funds have not been trading the stock heavily lately.
It's best to buy stocks that funds institutions are buying.
On Wed, 04 Dec 2024 Nvidia's stock price broke through its resistance level.
However, trading volume was -30% lower than usual, that could be a sign of weaker buying interest.
(b) Accumulation / Distribution rating.
Although Nvidia’s performance has beaten 95% of other stocks, funds have been wary of buying the stock lately.
The Accumulation/Distribution rating, that measures price and volume action over the last 13 weeks, is just ‘D-’.
(c) Relative Strength.
Finally, the relative strength line, that compares the stock with the S&P 500 index, fell sharply after the stock hit its all-time high of $152.89 in the last week of November 2024.
That shows Nvidia has not been matching the index's gains recently.
Apart from the tell tales signs, other factors to consider:
1. Impending Tariffs’ Impact.
Most shares experienced pressure, when president-elect shared his “big tariffs” plan to be imposed on goods from China, Mexico and Canada.
Nvidia was not spared either.
Bernstein Research analyst, Stacy Rasgon was quick to note that "raw semiconductor" imports from the 3 countries were tiny and would not hurt Nvidia.
Still, the tariff raises concerns that there may be more broad-based action that could hurt the overall semiconductor industry and even leader, Nvidia.
Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein noted that "restrictions seem in line or less severe than anticipated."
Piper Sandler analysts also:
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Stated, there were fewer entities on the restriction list than expected.
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In November, they projected a 20% upside for Nvidia and raised its price target to $175 from $140.
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Believed Nvidia is poised to gain most from increase in the total AI accelerator market, that will grow to $70 billion in 2025.
My thots: Are funds houses downplaying the ‘real’ impact, tariffs have on the economy, stock market and US citizens, while continuing to feed a Christmas rally before selling down their holdings ?
2. Company’s Growth Rate.
Nvidia’s strong point is its earnings growth.
According to FactSet, Nvidia ranks first among S&P 500 companies for revenue and earnings growth estimates through 2026.
Comparatively speaking, analysts expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of:
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5.7% in sales for the S&P 500, with 13.8% in earnings per share over 2 years.
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35.5% in sales for Nvidia, with 35.1% in earnings per share over same 2 year period.
Q3 Earnings.
Its latest quarterly earnings are proof of its strong growth rate.
Q3 sales were $35.08 billion, beating expectations of $33.17 billion.
In fact, sales nearly doubled from last year's $18.1 billion.
Earnings per share (EPS) were $0.81, also better than the expected $0.75.
3. Price Target Revision.
Some analysts have since revised Nvidia’s price target.
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Morgan Stanley - Joe Moore has revised price target to $160 with an “Overweight” rating.
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Melius Research analysts also raised their price target to $185 from 165 and maintained a “Buy” rating.
The revisions were due to optimism from sales of Nvidia’s Blackwell chip, forecasted to hit $5 to $6 billion in the January quarter.
4. Dow Jones Inclusion.
In November 2024, Nvidia has replaced Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, making it the 4th Magnificent 7 stock to join the Dow Jones industrials.
The others being AAPL, AMZN and MSFT.
What this means?
Nvidia is one of the 30 large, publicly traded US companies that are considered to be the leaders of US economy.
5. Other AI Investments.
The IBD post shared (above) only focus on Nvidia and its AI chips.
It failed to cover Nvidia’s investments in other AI companies, value adding in the process, just like what Amazon is doing with its Trainium 2. AI chip.
Based on Nvidia’s 13F filing with the SEC, Nvidia has invested in other AI stocks since end 2023. (see above)
The 6 investments are:
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Applied Digital Corp (APLD)$, Builds data centers for customers.
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$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$. Helps semiconductor companies design advanced computing chips.
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Nano-X Imaging (NNOX)$, Develops AI software to improve the efficiency of medical imaging.
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Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)$, Uses AI to transform the drug discovery process.
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Serve Robotics (SERV)$, Develops autonomous delivery robots.
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$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$: Leader in conversational AI technologies.
(1) ARM Holdings.
Arm Holdings received the largest investment, with Nvidia's position worth $280 million at the end of Q3 2024.
That represents over half of the value of Nvidia's entire portfolio.
Arm stock is up around +77% since Nvidia’s investment.
(2) SoundHound AI Inc.
On 02 Apr 2024, I have shared about SoundHound. Click here ! for the details.
Back in April it was priced a very reasonable $5.56 per share. Now ! (see below)
As of 05 Dec 2024, SOUN has gained +846.63%.
Based on current stock price of $19.69, Nvidia’s position in SOUN is relatively small, with a value of just $23 million, a drop in the ocean when compared to Nvidia’s 3 trillion market cap.
More important, SOUN’s list of customers have been growing and they are from diverse industries:
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Auto industry - Mercedes-Benz and Stellantis.
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Restaurant industry - Chipotle, Krispy Kreme, and Papa John's
On a more ambitious level, Nvidia is crossing the ocean for its next investment.
On Thu, 05 Dec 2024, Nvidia and the Vietnamese government signed an agreement to jointly set up an (1) AI research & development centre and an (2) an AI data centre in Vietnam.
Nvidia will partner with Vietnam's top tech firms and support the country in training talents for developing AI and digital infrastructure.
Although short on details, Vietnam Prime Minister has disclosed that Vietnam will leverage AI to (i) boost growth and also use it to (ii) develop clean energy.
Nvidia A Buy?
Looking at (i) chart signals and (ii) technical measures can help investors assess whether Nvidia stock is a buy now.
Nvidia has slipped below its buy point of $140.76.
And it is not holding its 50-day line, fallen below.
The relative strength line shows that the stock has not outperformed the S&P 500.
As such, it would be prudent to wait to see if it improves before buying the stock.
However, taking into considerations Nvidia’s investments and collaboration with Vietnam, buy the dip as these investments & project will rake in benefits in the medium to long term if & when it takes off?
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Do you think SOUN is a “Buy” now before it skyrockets even higher ?
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Do you think Nvidia is a compelling long-term investment, considering its AI-focus beyond just chips?
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