To The Moon

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• AI Agent helps American SaaS players to explore a brighter future, which is worth watching.

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1. Market recap

On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed with gains of over 1%. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rose more than 3%, reversing earlier losses and regaining lost ground; $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$, however, bucked the trend and fell over 3%, marking a three-day losing streak. $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ made a V-shaped reversal, briefly rebounding over $5,000 after dropping below the $93,000 mark. On December 23, $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ officially joined the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Index.

• Being hawkish: On Friday, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stated that there is "considerable room for rate cuts" over the next 12 to 18 months, reaffirming the Fed's supportive stance on rate reductions. This statement resonated with the moderate PCE inflation data released the same day, pushing all three major U.S. stock indices higher. However, there remains significant divergence within the Fed. Just this past weekend, FOMC voting member Mary Daly expressed that "it will take many fewer rate cuts next year than we thought."

• Buying the dip: Warren Buffett has done an early Christmas shopping this year. Berkshire Hathaway purchased shares of $Occidental(OXY)$, Sirius XM, and VeriSign over the course of Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, with a total value exceeding $560 million. Following news of the "Oracle of Omaha's" moves, these stocks saw gains overnight, with Occidental Petroleum closing up nearly 4%, Sirius XM jumping over 12%, and VeriSign rising nearly 3%. This may be due to optimism about Occidental Petroleum's low valuation and a bet on future medium-to-long-term oil price increases.

• Holiday strike: $Starbucks(SBUX)$ Workers United announced strikes in three major cities—Los Angeles, Chicago, and Seattle—protesting issues such as wages, benefits, and staffing. The five-day strike began last Friday, resulting in the closure of Starbucks locations in these cities.

With the Christmas holiday approaching, U.S. and Hong Kong stock markets will be closed on Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Economic indicators in the coming week are expected to be light, and trading volume may be low.

2.With a little help of AI Agent

Following Trump's election, expectations of increased liquidity, interest rate cuts, and corporate tax reductions are poised to further drive the growth of SaaS company valuations. The growth pace of SaaS providers is linked to macroeconomic and corporate spending cycles, and in a period of interest rate cuts, the potential for companies to expand their software spending becomes a possibility, thus boosting the performance of SaaS providers. Historically, as companies accelerate their performance trends, the rise in valuation multiples tends to dominate the increase in SaaS company stock prices.

AI is sparking a new cycle of product innovation for SaaS companies, which are launching AI products in succession. After a year and a half of product iteration and evolution, North American SaaS companies are seeing their revenue growth speed up from a three-year low.

From the perspective of market demand, AI is reigniting corporate IT investments. For SaaS companies, AI has the potential to accelerate software feature development, increase the price per customer purchase project, and enhance ARPU (Average Revenue Per User).

3.Crystal ball: Three patterns of reversal

$ServiceNow(NOW)$ - Performance reverses, AI implementation boosting growth

• ServiceNow achieved robust growth in the third quarter, surpassing market expectations and slightly raising its full-year revenue growth guidance.

• With the introduction of Xanadu and RaptorDB, ServiceNow has been enhancing its AI offerings and expanding into adjacent markets, such as databases.

• As a rising star in the AI agent market, ServiceNow launched its own AI agent in September 2024. This agent, based on the Now Platform, not only performs prompt-driven activities but also achieves deep contextual understanding to support complex enterprise workflows.

$HubSpot(HUBS)$ - Positive signal emerges, keep an eye on

• Last month, leading marketing and customer relationship management firm HubSpot released its third-quarter financial results for fiscal 2024, with impressive performance. The company's revenue grew by 20% year-over-year, significantly exceeding expectations.

• HubSpot introduced the AI-driven Breeze platform, which includes the Breeze Copilot AI assistant, now embedded across HubSpot's entire product line.

• Breeze Copilot features include crafting marketing content, researching background information on potential clients, and automatically extracting key information from customer service tickets.

$Salesforce.com(CRM)$ - Performance stabilizes with positive guidance, and optimistic AI implementation

• Salesforce's latest quarterly earnings report shows strong growth, exceeding expectations. This is primarily due to the outstanding performance of its small and medium-sized business segment and the tremendous potential of its newly launched AI product, Agentforce.

• Since its release this year, Agentforce has caused a sensation. It not only allows users to easily create agents using low-code tools but also integrates this technology into various cloud platforms like Sales, Service, and Marketing, offering a wide range of use cases.

• Agentforce is regarded as having advanced capabilities, with its low-code tools enabling users of varying experience levels to quickly get started.

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