layoffs, market top and free buffett tip - my investing muse (30Dec2024)
My Investing Muse (30Dec24)
Layoffs & Closure news
Photo Credit: Fabrice COFFRINI | AFP | Getty Images
From X user Evan:Google CEO Sundar Pichai and other Google leaders told employees last week at a 2025 strategy meeting that “the stakes are high” for next year - CNBC “I think it’s really important we internalize the urgency of this moment, and need to move faster as a company. The stakes are high. These are disruptive moments. In 2025, we need to be relentlessly focused on unlocking the benefits of this technology and solve real user problems.” - Sundar Pichai
In summary, layoffs are coming.
Now that Trump has won, they are revising all of their numbers during the Biden administration. The govt initially reported Q2 of 2024 had 653,000 job gains. It was actually NEGATIVE. There was also a revision of 800,000 jobs from last year. They falsified the data to try to help Biden/Harris. They will likely spin the economy negative now that Trump is President. X user Wall Street Mav
Layoffs hit more than 900 workers tied to the freight industry across the US. FedEx, GXO Logistics, ShipMonk, Mountain Valley Express LLC among companies with job cuts - Freightwaves
Signs of a Market Top (from X user The Long Investor)
- Parabolic Market moves in Wave 5
- Bubbles in particular sectors
- High PE Market average
- Large breadth between the price action and the 50 Day/200 Day MA and significantly above the 200 WMA
- RSI above 80
- Sentiment believes ‘they can’t lose’
- Wall St aggressively bullish (now)
- Heavily reliant on one sector to carry the market (Semis/Ai) house of cards scenario
- Retail going all in
- Retail largest inflows in decades
- Smart Money adding Safe Havens
- Smart Money going to Cash
- Smart Money going to new markets outside of the US (China) - Delinquencies at a record high
- 10 Year not following the Rate Cut decrease
- VIX above 38 Does any of this look familiar?
The signs of a market top are there. It does not mean that record highs are no longer available. It does remind me to consider taking off some profits.
A loss for Buffett is a free tip for me - Occidental
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A loss is realized when the position is closed. This also applies to profits.
When Buffett or Berkshire buys, a good margin of safety has been applied. This article is a good tip that says that this company is undervalued (based on Buffet’s previous calculations). However, it is necessary for us to do our due diligence to qualify the business. If we lack the circle of competence, we do not need to follow through with this.
My final thoughts
2024 is coming to a close. There is much to be thankful for. My portfolio has a mix of hits and misses. With most of my positions meant for the long term, there are limited closures. However, I have exited some of the stocks that are showing weakening fundamentals over a long period. For the trades that I am doing, I have exited some of them - taking both profits and losses.
The biggest gain from investing in 2024 is the knowledge and the people that I have met along this journey. My portfolio has grown, was trimmed and I have added some more assets. Let us look forward to a better 2025.
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