To The Moon

Hey there, fellow investor! So, Tesla ( $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ) just missed the mark on their Q4 delivery numbers, coming in at 495,570 vehicles against the expected 512,277. That's a miss, and it is no surprise, the stock dipped by about 7% when this article was written. Now, the big question for us is: Do we dive in with our wallets, or is this a red flag for what's coming next?

The Dip Buying Scenario:

First off, Tesla's stock has been on a rollercoaster, but let's not forget, it's still a beast in the EV market. Even with this miss, they've set a new delivery record. Here's what could make this dip a buying opportunity:

• Energy Storage: They had a record-breaking deployment of 11 GWh, which could mean stable or even growing revenue from other segments, not just cars. This diversifies their income stream, potentially cushioning any EV market fluctuations.

• Market Sentiment: There's a lot of talk on platforms like X about this being a "buy the dip" moment. Some folks are arguing that the miss isn't catastrophic, especially if you're in for the long haul. The energy sector's performance might just balance out the car sales dip.

• Valuation: If you're looking at Tesla from a valuation perspective, even with this drop, it's still trading at a premium. But, if you believe in the long-term growth story of EVs and Tesla's lead in tech like autonomous driving, this might be a chance to get in at a slightly less insane price.

Potential Correction Warning:

But wait, let's not jump in without considering the risks:

• Competitive Landscape: Tesla's no longer the only game in town. With the likes of Hyundai, BYD, and even traditional giants like Ford and GM expanding their EV offerings, Tesla's growth might slow down. The missed deliveries could signal tougher competition ahead.

• Economic Environment: We're in 2025, and while the market's been kind, economic cycles could turn. Higher interest rates, inflation, or a dip in consumer spending could hit Tesla harder, especially if its premium pricing strategy falters.

• Stock Volatility: Tesla's stock has been known for its wild swings. A miss like this could be the beginning of a more significant correction if investor confidence wanes, particularly if other quarters don't show recovery or if Tesla's other ventures don't pan out as hoped.

My Two Cents for 2025:

Personally, without a position in Tesla, I'd be looking at this dip with cautious optimism. Here's my plan:

• Wait for the Dust to Settle: I'd watch the market reaction post-earnings call. If Tesla outlines a convincing strategy for 2025, particularly around new models or autonomous tech, that could be a green light.

• Set a Price Target: If I were to buy, I'd aim for something around $360-$380, where there's some technical support, but also where the stock feels like it's not just a knee-jerk reaction to one quarter's miss.

• Diversify: Even if Tesla feels like a good buy, I wouldn't go all in. Spread the risk, and maybe look at some of the other EV players or tech firms in related fields like battery tech or AI.

• Long-Term Vision: If you believe in the EV revolution and Tesla's role in it, this could still be a solid addition to a long-term portfolio. But remember, Tesla's more than just a car company; it's about tech, energy, and innovation.

So, is it a bargain under $400? Maybe, but with caveats. Keep an eye on how Tesla responds, and don't let one quarter's numbers dictate your entire investment strategy. Here's to hoping for a better Q1 and beyond!

@TigerWire