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MrShawn5
2021-02-07

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Is the US Dollar Index cyclical? The third round of the US dollar cycle is coming as promised?

从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?

Is the US Dollar Index cyclical? The third round of the US dollar cycle is coming as promised?

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胖虎宝宝
·2021-02-09
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MrShawn5
·2021-02-12
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胖虎宝宝
·2021-02-12
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The third round of the US dollar cycle is coming as promised?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2109770659","media":"轩言全球宏观","summary":"从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?","content":"<p>Since the 1970s, the US Dollar Index has experienced two and a half cycles of 16-18 years, but is there cyclicality in the US Dollar Index? Is the third round of the US dollar cycle coming as promised? The market remains controversial. Focus on this issue,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>Xie Yaxuan, chief macro analyst, had a discussion with Professor Zhou Yinggang, deputy dean of Wang Yanan Economic Research Institute of Xiamen University.</p><p><b>1. Judgment on the US dollar cycle</b></p><p>Chief Xie Yaxuan believes that on the surface, the the US Dollar Index has obvious medium-to-long (16 to 18 years) cyclicality. However, both academic circles and industry seem to lack enough research and attention to this.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that from 1971 to 2020, the US Dollar Index has presented two complete cycles. Regarding the focus of market controversy \"Is there a third dollar cycle?\", the measurement method can be used to extend the the US Dollar Index: First, the simulation goes back to the 1970s in the US Dollar Index and the US Dollar Index, or there is a peak around 1967-1968; The second is to combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Combined with the forecasts of multiple financial institutions such as Citibank, the US Dollar Index will enter a weak cycle from 2021 to 2025.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that we can start with the study of economic cycle and financial cycle to get a preliminary understanding of the characteristics of the US dollar cycle, that is, the US dollar cycle is more likely to belong to the category of financial cycle. First, unlike the economic cycle, the financial cycle is more volatile and longer than the traditional economic cycle, about 8-30 years (Drehmann et al., 2012). Second, the proportion of the US dollar in financial activities such as cross-border credit, international debt securities, and foreign exchange transactions far exceeds its proportion in real economic activities, which also means that the US dollar cycle has the attributes of a financial cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571730907423.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1146\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. About the driving factors of the US dollar cycle</b></p><p>Chief Xie Yaxuan believes that market investors have obvious controversy about the driving factors behind the US dollar cycle. The traditional analysis framework pays more attention to the real economy level, the domestic economy level of the United States and relatively short-term driving factors, which seems to be insufficient to explain the cyclical changes of the US dollar with financial cyclical attributes.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the factors driving the dollar cycle mainly include the economic status of the United States, monetary policy of the United States, international events, etc. First, the economic status of the United States plays a supporting role in the U.S. dollar as a whole, and the correlation coefficient between the proportion of U.S. GDP in the world and real the US Dollar Index reaches 55.5%. Second, U.S. monetary policy aims to smooth out the economic cycle, but at the same time, it plays an important role in the conversion of the strength of the U.S. dollar. The trend of the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate tends to be ahead of the US Dollar Index. The main reason behind this is that the interest rate spread triggers capital inflows or outflows from the United States. Third, the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971, the Plaza Accord in 1985, the birth of the euro in 1999, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 are all important catalysts for the depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571749445101.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1175\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. About the impact of the US dollar cycle</b></p><p>Chief Xie Yaxuan pointed out that market investors don't seem to pay attention to the impact of the US dollar cycle on the real economy, believing that the US dollar is just an exchange rate, a \"mirror image\" or even a \"veil\" of changes in the strength of the real economy. This seems to run counter to the research results of financial cycles and global financial cycles that academic circles, especially the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, are particularly concerned about.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the US dollar cycle will have an impact on global trade, stock market, commodity prices, cross-border capital flows, RMB exchange rate, etc. First, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and global exports of goods and services is-44.6%, which means that a weak US dollar will promote global trade and economic elasticity, and help reduce trade imbalances. Second, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the MSCI Global Index (HP filter) is-18.6%, which means that a weak US dollar will push the stock market up. Third, the correlation coefficient between the the US Dollar Index and the CRB spot index is-20.3%, which means that a weak US dollar will push up commodity prices. Fourth, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the net inflow of global portfolio securities is-36.4%, which means that the weak US dollar will promote the cross-border inflow of global capital, push up asset prices and even bubbles. Fifth, the correlation coefficient between the the US Dollar Index and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is 82.4%, and the correlation coefficient with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index is-37.7%, which means that a weak US dollar may drive the passive appreciation of the RMB.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571767912605.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. About the U.S. dollar cycle and major asset allocation</b></p><p>Merrill Lynch clock was once nicknamed as an electric fan. Chief Xie Yaxuan proposed that from the perspective of industry and investment research, the dollar cycle and financial cycle should be fully considered to improve the asset allocation framework.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang shared the latest achievement of the team: WISE investment clock based on Merrill Lynch clock improvement. Different from the traditional Merrill Lynch clock, WISE clock has two major innovations. One is to synthesize financial cycle indicators, and the other is to use real estate as a new asset. During the upward economic cycle and financial cycle, real estate is the first choice for asset allocation, followed by stocks; During the upward financial cycle and the downward economic cycle, stocks are the first choice for asset allocation, followed by bonds; During the economic cycle downturn and financial cycle downturn, cash is the first choice for asset allocation, followed by bonds; During the downward financial cycle and the upward economic cycle, commodities are the first choice for asset allocation, followed by real estate. Finally, Professor Zhou believes that China's financial industry will accelerate its opening up, and global asset allocation is the general trend. In this process, more attention should be paid to the US dollar cycle and changes in the US dollar cycle to grasp the corresponding investment opportunities.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571780285987.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1582886636882","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the US Dollar Index cyclical? The third round of the US dollar cycle is coming as promised?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the US Dollar Index cyclical? The third round of the US dollar cycle is coming as promised?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">轩言全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-06 08:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Since the 1970s, the US Dollar Index has experienced two and a half cycles of 16-18 years, but is there cyclicality in the US Dollar Index? Is the third round of the US dollar cycle coming as promised? The market remains controversial. Focus on this issue,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>Xie Yaxuan, chief macro analyst, had a discussion with Professor Zhou Yinggang, deputy dean of Wang Yanan Economic Research Institute of Xiamen University.</p><p><b>1. Judgment on the US dollar cycle</b></p><p>Chief Xie Yaxuan believes that on the surface, the the US Dollar Index has obvious medium-to-long (16 to 18 years) cyclicality. However, both academic circles and industry seem to lack enough research and attention to this.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that from 1971 to 2020, the US Dollar Index has presented two complete cycles. Regarding the focus of market controversy \"Is there a third dollar cycle?\", the measurement method can be used to extend the the US Dollar Index: First, the simulation goes back to the 1970s in the US Dollar Index and the US Dollar Index, or there is a peak around 1967-1968; The second is to combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Combined with the forecasts of multiple financial institutions such as Citibank, the US Dollar Index will enter a weak cycle from 2021 to 2025.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that we can start with the study of economic cycle and financial cycle to get a preliminary understanding of the characteristics of the US dollar cycle, that is, the US dollar cycle is more likely to belong to the category of financial cycle. First, unlike the economic cycle, the financial cycle is more volatile and longer than the traditional economic cycle, about 8-30 years (Drehmann et al., 2012). Second, the proportion of the US dollar in financial activities such as cross-border credit, international debt securities, and foreign exchange transactions far exceeds its proportion in real economic activities, which also means that the US dollar cycle has the attributes of a financial cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571730907423.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1146\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. About the driving factors of the US dollar cycle</b></p><p>Chief Xie Yaxuan believes that market investors have obvious controversy about the driving factors behind the US dollar cycle. The traditional analysis framework pays more attention to the real economy level, the domestic economy level of the United States and relatively short-term driving factors, which seems to be insufficient to explain the cyclical changes of the US dollar with financial cyclical attributes.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the factors driving the dollar cycle mainly include the economic status of the United States, monetary policy of the United States, international events, etc. First, the economic status of the United States plays a supporting role in the U.S. dollar as a whole, and the correlation coefficient between the proportion of U.S. GDP in the world and real the US Dollar Index reaches 55.5%. Second, U.S. monetary policy aims to smooth out the economic cycle, but at the same time, it plays an important role in the conversion of the strength of the U.S. dollar. The trend of the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate tends to be ahead of the US Dollar Index. The main reason behind this is that the interest rate spread triggers capital inflows or outflows from the United States. Third, the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971, the Plaza Accord in 1985, the birth of the euro in 1999, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 are all important catalysts for the depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571749445101.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1175\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. About the impact of the US dollar cycle</b></p><p>Chief Xie Yaxuan pointed out that market investors don't seem to pay attention to the impact of the US dollar cycle on the real economy, believing that the US dollar is just an exchange rate, a \"mirror image\" or even a \"veil\" of changes in the strength of the real economy. This seems to run counter to the research results of financial cycles and global financial cycles that academic circles, especially the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, are particularly concerned about.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the US dollar cycle will have an impact on global trade, stock market, commodity prices, cross-border capital flows, RMB exchange rate, etc. First, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and global exports of goods and services is-44.6%, which means that a weak US dollar will promote global trade and economic elasticity, and help reduce trade imbalances. Second, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the MSCI Global Index (HP filter) is-18.6%, which means that a weak US dollar will push the stock market up. Third, the correlation coefficient between the the US Dollar Index and the CRB spot index is-20.3%, which means that a weak US dollar will push up commodity prices. Fourth, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the net inflow of global portfolio securities is-36.4%, which means that the weak US dollar will promote the cross-border inflow of global capital, push up asset prices and even bubbles. Fifth, the correlation coefficient between the the US Dollar Index and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is 82.4%, and the correlation coefficient with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index is-37.7%, which means that a weak US dollar may drive the passive appreciation of the RMB.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571767912605.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. About the U.S. dollar cycle and major asset allocation</b></p><p>Merrill Lynch clock was once nicknamed as an electric fan. Chief Xie Yaxuan proposed that from the perspective of industry and investment research, the dollar cycle and financial cycle should be fully considered to improve the asset allocation framework.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang shared the latest achievement of the team: WISE investment clock based on Merrill Lynch clock improvement. Different from the traditional Merrill Lynch clock, WISE clock has two major innovations. One is to synthesize financial cycle indicators, and the other is to use real estate as a new asset. During the upward economic cycle and financial cycle, real estate is the first choice for asset allocation, followed by stocks; During the upward financial cycle and the downward economic cycle, stocks are the first choice for asset allocation, followed by bonds; During the economic cycle downturn and financial cycle downturn, cash is the first choice for asset allocation, followed by bonds; During the downward financial cycle and the upward economic cycle, commodities are the first choice for asset allocation, followed by real estate. Finally, Professor Zhou believes that China's financial industry will accelerate its opening up, and global asset allocation is the general trend. In this process, more attention should be paid to the US dollar cycle and changes in the US dollar cycle to grasp the corresponding investment opportunities.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571780285987.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P-o-ghtwNNJynh827FHTUA\">轩言全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37cf1a899f018a102327895848b06a09","relate_stocks":{"FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXC":"加元ETF-CurrencyShares","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXF":"瑞士法郎ETF-CurrencyShares","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","FXA":"澳元ETF-CurrencyShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P-o-ghtwNNJynh827FHTUA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2109770659","content_text":"从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?市场仍然存在争议。聚焦此问题，招商证券宏观首席分析师谢亚轩与厦门大学王亚南经济研究院副院长周颖刚教授展开讨论。一、 关于美元周期的判断谢亚轩首席认为，从表面看，美元指数存在明显的中长(16至18年)周期性。但是不论是学界还是业界似乎对此都缺乏足够的研究和关注。周颖刚教授认为，从1971年到2020年，美元指数已呈现两轮完整周期。关于市场争议焦点“是否存在第三轮美元周期?”，可以采用计量方法对美元指数进行延长：一是，模拟回溯70年代之前美元指数，美元指数或在1967-1968年左右存在一个顶点;二是，结合摩根士丹利、花旗银行等多个金融机构的预测进行组合，2021-2025年美元指数将进入弱势周期。周颖刚教授认为，可从经济周期和金融周期的研究入手，来获得对美元周期特征的初步认识，即：美元周期更可能属于金融周期的范畴。一是，与经济周期不同的是，金融周期比传统经济周期波幅更大，周期更长，约为8年-30年(Drehmann等，2012)。二是，美元在跨境信贷、国际债务证券、外汇交易等金融活动领域的占比远超过其在实体经济活动中的占比，这也意味着美元周期更具有金融周期的属性。二、 关于美元周期的驱动因素谢亚轩首席认为，市场投资者对于美元周期背后的驱动因素存在明显的争议。传统的分析框架比较关注实体经济层面，美国国内经济层面和比较短期的驱动因素，似乎不足以解释具备金融周期属性的美元周期变化。周颖刚教授认为，驱动美元周期的因素主要包括美国经济地位、美国货币政策、国际事件等。一是，美国经济地位对美元整体上起到支撑作用，美国GDP占全球比重与实际美元指数的相关系数达55.5%。二是，美国货币政策旨在熨平经济周期，但同时，对美元的强弱转换起到重要作用。美联储政策利率走势往往领先于美元指数，其背后原因主要是利差引发资本流入或流出美国。三是，1971年美元与黄金脱钩、1985年《广场协议》、1999年欧元诞生、2020年新冠疫情等国际事件的发生都是美元贬值的重要催化剂。三、 关于美元周期的影响谢亚轩首席指出市场投资者似乎并不重视美元周期对实体经济的影响，认为美元只是汇率，只是实体经济强弱变化的一种“镜像”，甚至是“面纱”。这似乎与学界特别是以国际清算银行、欧央行和英格兰银行特别关切的金融周期及全球金融周期的研究成果背道而驰。周颖刚教授认为，美元周期对全球贸易、股票市场、大宗商品价格、跨境资本流动、人民币汇率等都会产生影响。一是，美元指数与全球商品和服务出口相关系数为-44.6%，意味着弱美元将促进全球贸易和经济弹性，并有助于减少贸易失衡。二是，美元指数与MSCI全球指数(HP滤波)相关系数为-18.6%，意味着弱美元将推动股票市场上涨。三是，美元指数与CRB现货指数的相关系数为-20.3%，意味着弱美元将推涨大宗商品价格。四是，美元指数与全球投资组合证券净流入相关系数为-36.4%，意味着弱美元将促进全球资本跨境流入，推动资产价格上涨甚至出现泡沫。五是，美元指数与人民币兑美元汇率相关系数为82.4%，与CFETS人民币汇率指数相关系数为-37.7%，意味着弱美元可能带动人民币被动升值。四、 关于美元周期与大类资产配置美林时钟曾被戏称变成电风扇，谢亚轩首席提出从业界和投资研究实战的角度看，应充分考虑美元周期和金融周期对大类资产配置框架加以改进。周颖刚教授分享了团队最新成果：基于美林时钟改进的WISE投资时钟。有别于传统美林时钟，WISE时钟主要有两大创新点，一是，合成金融周期指标，二是，将房地产作为新增资产。在经济周期上行和金融周期上行期间，资产配置首选房地产，其次是股票;在金融周期上行和经济周期下行期间，资产配置首选股票，其次是债券;在经济周期下行和金融周期下行期间，资产配置首选现金，其次是债券;在金融周期下行和经济周期上行期间，资产配置首选商品，其次是房产。最后，周教授认为，中国金融业将加速开放，全球资产配置乃大势所趋，在此过程中，应更加关注美元周期及美元周期的变化，以把握对应的投资机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NZDmain":0.9,"YCS":0.9,"EUO":0.9,"MGBPmain":0.9,"GBPmain":0.9,"MAUDmain":0.9,"MEURmain":0.9,"FXA":0.9,"FXC":0.9,"JPYmain":0.9,"CADmain":0.9,"FXE":0.9,"FXF":0.9,"CHFmain":0.9,"FXB":0.9,"AUDmain":0.9,"FXY":0.9,"EURmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2970,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":3523292,"commentId":"3523292","gmtCreate":1612844168658,"gmtModify":1680776204299,"authorId":3570422292303429,"author":{"id":3570422292303429,"idStr":"3570422292303429","authorId":3570422292303429,"name":"胖虎宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e46136ec0a6bee3b2da277c7ec77409","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior 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