To The Moon

Last Jobs Report.

The last job report for February 2025 - the “US Non-farm payroll” was finally released. (see below)

It took center stage in early trading Friday.

US non-farm payroll job growth fell short of expectations with wage growth exceeding forecasts.

• Employers added 143,000 jobs in January 2025, missing the 169,000 estimate. (see above)

• It also came up “very very short” when compared to the upwardly revised 307,000 jobs gain in December 2024 vs the original December reading of 256,000 jobs.

• Lastly, the January data is also coming in below the 2024 monthly average of 166,000.

Sectors with Jobs Gain:

• Healthcare - 44,000 jobs.

• Retail trade - 34,000 jobs.

• Social assistance - 22,000 jobs.

• Government employment - 32,000 jobs. This number will (definitely) change with March 2025 reporting, thanks to abrupt & drastic action by President Trump’s newly set up division DOGE.

Unemployment Rate.

• Unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.0% from 4.1%.

• At the same time, the labour force participation rate ticked slightly higher to 62.6%, reinforcing signs of a still-active workforce.

• Wage growth was strong, and additions over the previous 2 months’ jobs reports were revised up by 100,000.

What January Data Is Saying?.

While the decline in headline job creation might signal a cooling labour market, improvement in unemployment suggests that the slowdown is not yet severe.

The monthly update is closely watched, as health of the labour market is a key consideration for the Fed in setting interest rates.

According to Crestwood Advisor, Chief investment officer, John Ingram:

• Overall takeaway is that the employment markets are still robust.

• It is consistent with an economy that seems to be accelerating.

In short, it means it is quite unlikely that the Fed will consider cutting interest rate come March 2025 when FOMC next convene.

US Consumer Sentiments.

Besides fewer jobs added in January 2025, fresh data out on Friday also showed that Americans have soured in recent weeks with regards to the US economy.

Consumer sentiment in the University of Michigan’s preliminary February survey fell to its lowest reading since July 2024. (see above)

At the same time, inflation expectations for 2025 ahead rose to highest level since November 2023.

US Market Unrest & Concerns.

As a result, all 3 major US stock indexes closed lower for the week, capping off a wild streak of sessions that whipsawed on (a) trade uncertainty and (b) big tech earnings.

Stocks fell Friday with a mixed jobs report that showed the economy added less jobs in January than forecasted.

Adding to investors’ nerves, President Trump said Friday afternoon at a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, to (a) push Japan to even trade imbalance (see below) and (b) to announce reciprocal tariffs on unspecified countries next week.

Analysts have warned that tariffs could push inflation higher, and in turn keep long-awaited rate cuts on the backburner for longer.

Does the returned President care ? Of course not ! Under the guise of “good housekeeping” within US, he has sown discord and instilled fear (and lots of it), both domestically and internationally.

The aftermath action could not have been more acutely felt than in US market. By the time market called it a week:

• DJIA: -0.99% (-444.23 to 44,303.40).

• S&P 500: -0.95% (-57.58 to 6,025.99).

• Nasdaq: -1.36% (-268.59 to 19,523.40).

For the week:

• DJIA: -0.5% (-241.26 points to 44,303.40).

• S&P 500: -0.2% (-14.54 points to 6,025.99).

• Nasdaq: -0.5% (-104.04 points to 19,523.40).

AI Future In Jeopardy?

This week, majority of Magnificent Seven performed poorly.

For the week, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ stock price went up by +13.78%, after it plunged by -17%, 2-weeks ago.

The crash happened because Chinese AI company DeepSeek has unveiled its R1 AI-model, developed at a fraction of Magnificent 7’s AI investment, raising doubts and prompting investors to re-evaluate their positions in the AI sector.

Others like $Alphabet(GOOG)$, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ and $Apple(AAPL)$ also fell due to similar investors’ concerns over their hefty AI-related capital expenditures.

Continuous large-scale investments in AI by the Magnificent Seven have further intensified these concerns, as investors worry about (a) potential overvaluation and (b) the sustainability of growth in the sector

• Amazon shares fell -4% Friday after the e-retailer gave lower-than-expected guidance.

• Microsoft fell -1.46% Friday due to above jobs and sentiments reports.

• Likewise for Alphabet (-3.19%) and Tesla (-3.39%). Latter’s decline is due to poor EV sales in EU (Germany) and China.

The only Magnificent 7’s bright spark has been Meta Platform (META)$. (see below)

Its shares gained +5.75% for the week, with Friday, its 15th consecutive session moving higher.

US market’s performance for week beginning Mon, 10 Feb 2025 will still be influenced by (a) Economic reports, (b) Quarterly earnings and (c) more tariffs “bad” news from Trump.

Economic Reports.

With jobs concerns over, it is time to worry about US’s stubborn inflation. (see below)

• Wed, 12 Feb 2025 - Consumer price index (CPI) report.

• Thu, 13 Feb 2025 - US weekly jobless claims.

• Thu, 13 Feb 2025 - Producer price index (PPI) report.

• Fri, 14 Feb 2025 - US retail sales.

Quarterly Earnings.

Below are some company earnings releases that might interest Tiger readers:

• Mon, 10 Feb 2025 - McDonalds (MCD).

• Tue, 11 Feb 2025 - Shopify (SHOP).

• Tue, 11 Feb 2025 - Coca Cola (KO).

• Tue, 11 Feb 2025 - Gilead Sciences (GILD).

• Wed, 12 Feb 2025 - Cisco Systems (CSCO).

• Wed, 12 Feb 2025 - Applovin Corp (APP).

My concern for the coming week is the extent of tariffs-damage/s that Mr Trump is about to unleash globally and whether Singapore will be caught in the line of fire.

This is because Singapore’s semiconductor sector is its largest manufacturing segment, contributing about 8% to the Republic’s gross domestic product (GDP) and providing jobs to tens of thousands of Singaporeans.

Much is at stake if the US were to clamp down on Singapore’s access to Nvidia’s chips. 

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• Non Farm Payroll Stops AMZN From Falling ?

• $ARM for recovery on Thursday ?

• GOOG : Buy The Correction, This Week ?

• Do you think Mr Trump’s unveiling of his tariff’s wrath will cause US market to be even more volatile & unstable ? I think so and am concern that Singapore might be on his black list !

• Do you think the Magnificent 7 stand a chance of recovery in the immediate term ?

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerEvents