SAIL: Second Time's the Cyber Charm?
On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, the 2nd inflation report - US producer price index (PPI) for January 2025 was released by US Bureau of Labour Statistics, just before trading began.
Producer Price Index - January 2025.
Like its cousin report the consumer price index (CPI), released a day earlier, (click here ! for details, help to Repost & Like to encourage) PPI’s inflation data rose on a YoY basis in January, (see above)
Headline inflation :
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Monthly: was 0.4% vs economists’ consensus 0.3% vs december’s upwardly revised 0.5% (from 0.2%).
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Annual: was 3.5% vs economists’ consensus 3.2% vs december’s upwardly revised 3.5% (from 3.2%).
Core inflation :
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Monthly: was 0.3% vs economists’ consensus 0.3% vs december’s upwardly revised 0.4% (from 0.0%).
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Annual : was 3.6% vs economists’ consensus 3.3% vs december’s upwardly revised 3.7% (from 3.5%).
US Weekly Jobless claims.
The other economic report released on Thursday was “initial filings for unemployment claims” for week ending 08 Feb 2025. (see below)
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Claims totaled 213,000, a decrease of -7,000 from the prior period.
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It fell “short” of market consensus’s 217,000 claims and december’s upwardly revised 220,000 claims (from initial 219,000 claims).
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Likewise, continuing claims, that runs a week behind, also fell to 1.85 million, down by -36,000.
Overall, this information implies a robust US labour market is still at play.
With the reporting of (1) PPI inflation report and (2) the Weekly jobless claims out, I assumed it would be another day of doom & gloom.
However, the market managed to spring a surprise from around 1:15pm onwards.
What’s Changed ?
On Thursday, Mr Trump has signed into action the presidential memorandum to move the US one step closer to a “reciprocal” tariff system that could dramatically raise duties on certain imports from around the world.
The memo lays out a process for Trump to impose reciprocal tariffs on trading partners, effectively raising tariffs on a country’s exports to the US, based on the level of (a) tariff & (b) non-tariff barriers that a country imposes on US goods.
The twist that came after the memo announcement, was that the president intended to delay reciprocal tariffs until April 2025.
In the interim, the US is opened to negotiations & talks with individual nation over tariffs on a 1-to-1 basis.
This was the event that turned US market around, from a slumping to rising trend in a matters of hours. (see below)
By the time market called it a day:
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DJIA: +0.77% (+342.87 to 44,711.43).
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S&P 500: +1.04% (+63.10 to 6,115.07).
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Nasdaq: +1.50% (+295.69 to 19,945.64).
Latest Interest Forecast.
During Fed’s chair Jerome Powell’s 2-day semiannual monetary policy report meeting with US Congress, he confirmed that inflation expectations were ‘well-anchored’.
With that, bets on the next rate cut have shifted from June to September 2025, with a -0.25% interest cut probability at 43.1%. (see above)
However, some economists are suggesting that more bad news could cause the central bank to start raising rates instead of cutting it.
US Market on Valentine’s Day ?
How will US market close off the week on St. Valentine’s Day ?
Friday’s market volatility (or lack thereof) will primarily be driven by economic reports coming out.
Investors will closely watch the following reports, that are crucial in the context of growing inflation concerns and Donald Trump’s economic plans:
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US retail sales for January 2025.
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Industrial production.
US Pre-market Indicators.
US market is slated to open lower this Valentine’s Day :
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DJIA: -0.27%
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S&P 500: -0.14%
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Nasdaq: -0.15%.
There's a common belief that the US stock market often ends Fridays on a low note.
Although, this isn't consistently true, followings might exert an influencing effort:
(1) Weekend Effect:
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Studies suggest a "weekend effect" where stock returns on Mondays are often lower than the preceding Friday.
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This could be due to factors like companies releasing bad news after market close on Friday or investors' sentiment changing over the weekend.
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This effect is debated and may not always hold true.
(2) Profit Taking:
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Traders might sell stocks on Fridays to secure profits before the weekend, potentially leading to lower prices.
(3) Reduced Trading Volume:
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Trading volume can be lower on Fridays as some investors and traders may be less active before the weekend.
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This can increase price volatility.
(4) Overall Market Trends:
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The most significant factor is the overall trend of the market.
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If the market is generally bullish (upward trend), Fridays are more likely to end positively, and vice versa.
A Returning Stock.
On a brighter note, I have a “new” stock to share - $SailPoint Parent, LP(SAIL)$ :
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SailPoint Holdings is considered a cybersecurity stock.
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It specializes in identity and access management (IAM) solutions, that are crucial components of cybersecurity.
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SailPoint's platform helps organizations manage and secure user identities, ensuring that only authorized individuals have access to critical systems and data.
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This focus on identity security places SailPoint firmly within the cybersecurity sector
History.
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Founded in December 2005 by Mark McClain, Kevin Cunningham, and Jackie Gilbert in Austin, Texas.
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It gained traction due to its innovative approach to identity governance.
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Over the years, it grew inorganically via several strategic acquisitions, including Cloudmasons, Whitebox Security, OverWatchID, Orkus, Intello, and ERP Maestro3.
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In April 2022, it was acquired by Thoma Bravo, a leading software investment firm, in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $6.9 billion and was “delisted”.
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Its back in Nasdaq again to achieve bigger things. Yay !
Why SailPoint?
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SailPoint is a compelling investment due to its strong market position in the identity security sector, continuous innovation, and strategic acquisitions that have expanded its capabilities and market reach.
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The company's focus on enabling secure cloud access and addressing compliance regulations within a zero-trust security model positions it well for future growth in the cybersecurity industry.
Notable Customers :
Look at SailPoint’s whose who customers.
Large Enterprises:
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Aramco: The global energy giant has implemented SailPoint's solutions to transform its digital identity and access management, enhancing security and streamlining operations.
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$AES Corp(AES)$: This Fortune 500 power company has deployed SailPoint's Identity Security Cloud to scale and transform its digital lifecycle management processes.
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Groupe Rocher: This international beauty company successfully migrated to SailPoint to harmonize its cybersecurity technology with a unified identity security solution.
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GXS Bank: Singapore digital bank rapidly deployed SailPoint to establish a strong foundation for its identity security and governance program.
Financial Institutions:
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Currys: This leading retail company uses SailPoint to secure its customer data and ensure compliance with data privacy regulations.
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Legal and General: This financial services group relies on SailPoint to manage and govern access to its systems and data.
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ABSA Bank: This major African bank has invested in SailPoint's solutions to secure the wide range of identities used across its business landscape.
Other Industries:
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Aboitiz: This Philippine conglomerate has adopted SailPoint's Identity Security Cloud to improve security and automate identity management across its diverse business units.
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ASDA: This major UK supermarket chain uses SailPoint to secure its systems and data, including customer information.
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AdventHealth: This large healthcare provider relies on SailPoint to protect patient data and comply with healthcare regulations.
Need I say more ? Guessed not !
Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.
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Do you think US market will close on a high this Friday ?
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Do you think SAIL is a compelling buy in the cybersecurity arena ?
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Perhaps $SailPoint Parent, LP(SAIL)$ is a "new & unfamiliar" US cybersecurity stock?
Since sharing, SAIL has gained about 15% in price.
This is because you cannot keep a "good" stock depressed or tucked away for too long.
Sooner or later, "true" value will surface.
Willing to take a bet on SAIL that was listed, delisted and now listed again ?
Will it soars like PLTR ?
**Remember your due diligence !!
Help to Repost (so more will know). Like to encourage (me) ok. Thanks.
Pls "Re-post" so that more get to know. Tks! Rating is important (to me).
Consider "Follow me" and get first hand read of my Daily new posts? Thanks!). Tks!!