To The Moon

$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ At this point, it's time to bring out something with a bit more weight. There’s not much time left until the real correction in March. As for why March is the true correction, you can refer to my article from Monday. This time, the false correction was intercepted by the February 14 surge and the February 20 Alibaba earnings rally. Although the candlestick chart looks ugly, it still went up. Compared to the previous two weeks, the gains are just relatively smaller. Think about it carefully: everyone wants to catch the dip and ride it all the way to $40. But now, looking back, the market really doesn’t give anyone a free ride, does it? I’ve reflected on the oversight in my thinking this time. For short-term bullish windows, opportunities to take advantage of corrections need to be carefully considered. What does "short-term" mean? As shown in the chart, the KWEB option open interest data as of February 20. Blue data represents options expiring this week, and green data represents options expiring next week. Excluding these two colors, the head data shows expiration dates clustered around March 21. You can compare this with the KWEB open interest data from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, which I mentioned in my Monday article. The conclusion is that the head options positions for this March wave must be killed. March 21 is Triple Witching Day, and institutions typically act early — about one to two weeks in advance. I expect the peak to occur around the week of March 8, or at the latest, the week of March 14. This makes the trend during the week of February 28 very critical. When will it break through $40? Theoretically, it should surge on February 28, but based on the options positions, the volatility for that week appears locked between $33.5–40. Looking at the bullish open interest data, there’s a chance to reach $40 next week, but it’s hard to say whether it will stabilize above $40. However, considering the week of March 8 is still bullish, even with high-level consolidation, it’s highly unlikely to fall below $36. After all, the market still has to lure traders into buying out-of-the-money calls. Trading strategy: Considering that current option prices are quite expensive, I chose to sell put 36 $KWEB 20250307 36.0 PUT$ . $iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$ FXI is similar to KWEB. Additionally, some people are employing dual-buy strategies, so major fluctuations are expected before April. What’s interesting is that while there are many bullish positions, the bears and bulls are evenly matched, with some selling calls. For example: sell call $FXI 20250307 37.0 CALL$ . This is the first time I’ve seen a significant at-the-money sell call position — marking it here as a potential turning point. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Expectations remain unchanged. Refer to my Wednesday article: $126.4–153.6$. A large sell call position: $NVDA 20250314 155.0 CALL$ , with 10,000 contracts opened. This is further evidence of a volatility-short strategy. However, the market’s overly uniform strategy has led to very low volatility. I wonder if a low-probability event might occur. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Although the March-expiry $50 put saw 33,000 contracts opened, the transaction value is only $33,000. What’s more notable is the second-ranked $250 put $TSLA 20251219 250.0 PUT$ , with only 4,227 contracts opened but a transaction value of $8.137 million. This is a heavy bearish position. Perhaps this is why Tesla dropped so badly today — there’s a new bearish player in the market.