To The Moon

$MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$ will be reporting its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings result on 05 March 2025 after the market close.

MDB is expected to post $547 million in revenue, up 19% year-over-year. The earnings per share is expected to come in at 66 cents which is a decline of 23% compared to same period one year ago.

MongoDB (MDB) Last Neutral Earnings Call Saw A -26.02% Change Since

MongoDB has a neutral earnings call on 09 Dec 2024 but the share price suffered a decline of 26.02% since then.

MongoDB reported strong revenue growth and customer base expansion, with promising developments in Atlas and new initiatives in AI application programs. However, there are concerns about the muted seasonal improvement in Atlas consumption, an expected sequential decline in non-Atlas revenue, and dependency on multiyear deals for EA revenue.

MongoDB (MDB) Guidance On Net ARR Expansion Rate

During MongoDB's Q3 fiscal 2025 earnings call, the company reported strong financial results, with revenue reaching $529.4 million, marking a 22% year-over-year increase and surpassing the high end of their guidance. Atlas, their cloud database service, experienced a 26% year-over-year growth and accounted for 68% of total revenue. The company also achieved a non-GAAP operating income of $101 million, representing a 19% operating margin. MongoDB ended the quarter with over 52,600 customers, reflecting sequential growth of approximately 1,900 customers. For Q4, MongoDB provided guidance with expected revenue between $515 million and $519 million, and a non-GAAP net income per share of $0.62 to $0.65. Full fiscal year 2025 revenue is projected to be between $1.973 billion and $1.977 billion, with a non-GAAP net income per share of $3.01 to $3.03.

The company highlighted investments in enterprise channels and AI-focused initiatives, with expectations of continued growth driven by legacy app modernization and AI application development. MongoDB's net ARR expansion rate stood at approximately 120%, and they concluded the quarter with 2,314 customers generating at least $100,000 in ARR.

Key Metrics to Watch For MongoDB (MDB) Earnings

I think we have seen how MDB have been trying to expand their customers in the previous quarter, and the net ARR expansion rate is something we might want to watch.

Here are some of the key metrics that I will be watching.

Revenue Growth

MongoDB has consistently delivered ~25–30% YoY revenue growth in recent quarters. In previous quarter, MongoDB generated revenue of $529 million, a 22% year-over-year increase, exceeding the high end of their guidance.

For Q4 2025, analysts will focus on whether growth stabilizes or accelerates, particularly for its Atlas platform (cloud database service), which accounts for ~70% of total revenue. Non-Atlas revenue is expected to decline sequentially in Q4 due to significant multiyear deals in Q3 not recurring.

The slower growth of fiscal '24 cohorts continues, aligning with revised expectations. Q3 non-Atlas revenue benefited from over $15 million in multiyear deals, contributing to revenue fluctuations.

Consensus Estimate

Analysts may project revenue of $450–470 million (up ~20–25% YoY), depending on execution and macroeconomic conditions.

Atlas Performance

In fiscal Q3 2025, Atlas revenue grew 26% year-over-year, representing 68% of total revenue. Atlas growth (historically ~30%+ YoY) is critical. Investors will watch for:

1. Consumption Trends: Usage-based pricing resilience amid cloud cost optimization efforts.

2. Enterprise Adoption: Large customer deals and expansions in industries like AI/ML, fintech, and SaaS.

The seasonal improvement in Atlas consumption was more muted than in previous years, with year-over-year growth remaining below prior periods.

Profitability

Non-GAAP Operating Margin: MongoDB has improved profitability in recent years. Look for margins in the 10–15% range (non-GAAP), driven by scale and cost discipline. In previous quarter, MongoDB reported a non-GAAP operating income of $101 million, resulting in a 19% non-GAAP operating margin.

Free Cash Flow: Sustainable cash generation (historically strong) will reassure investors about long-term viability.

Customer Growth

$100K+ Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Customers: A key indicator of enterprise traction. MongoDB added ~200 such customers YoY in recent quarters. In fiscal Q3 2025, MongoDB ended the quarter with over 52,600 customers, adding approximately 1,900 customers sequentially.

Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): Signals future revenue visibility (Q3 2024 RPO was $1.7 billion, up 37% YoY). MongoDB 8.0, the fastest version yet, performs 20% to 60% better against industry benchmarks.

Guidance for FY2026

Management’s FY2026 revenue and profitability outlook will be pivotal. Investors want confidence that MongoDB can sustain 20%+ growth despite competition and macro pressures.

Expansion of the MongoDB AI Applications Program with new partners like McKinsey and collaboration with Meta.

Strategic Drivers & Catalysts

• AI/ML Workloads: MongoDB’s relevance in AI-driven applications (e.g., real-time analytics, vector search capabilities) could drive adoption. Partnerships with AI infrastructure providers (e.g., AWS, Google Cloud) may be highlighted.

• Developer Mindshare: MongoDB’s document-based model and ease of use continue to attract developers, a key competitive moat against rivals like AWS DynamoDB, Firebase, or PostgreSQL.

• Global Expansion: Growth in international markets (Europe, Asia-Pacific) as cloud adoption accelerates.

Risks & Challenges

• Cloud Cost Optimization: Enterprises scrutinizing cloud spend could slow Atlas consumption growth.

• Competition: Pressure from hyperscalers (AWS, Azure) offering native database services and pricing discounts.

• Valuation: MongoDB trades at a premium (~15x EV/Sales as of mid-2024). Any growth deceleration or margin miss could trigger volatility.

MongoDB (MDB) Price Target

Based on 29 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for MongoDB in the last 3 months. The average price target is $372.38 with a high forecast of $430.00 and a low forecast of $275.00. The average price target represents a 43.76% change from the last price of $259.02.

If we looked at how OKTA earnings have come up, it looks like there are certain sectors especially those which support OPEX might have better customers gain, so we will need to see how MDB could capture this potential.

How the price will move might depend on these two scenarios.

• Bull Case: Strong Atlas growth, margin expansion, and upbeat FY2026 guidance would reinforce MongoDB’s position as a leader in modern database infrastructure. AI tailwinds could drive multiple expansion.

• Bear Case: Slowing Atlas consumption, weaker RPO growth, or conservative guidance might spark concerns about saturation in core markets.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing MDB holding up quite well despite the sell-off last week, but that is not enough to see a daily uptrend, as the RSI is showing weak momentum as it is trending towards the oversold region.

I would think we need to watch the market sentiment on 04 March 2025 to see how the investors could push the sentiment up, as MDB is trending below the 12-EMA and 26-EMA where 12/26/50 EMA converge.

So the crucial part is the attempt to move above these levels might give some share price boost.

Summary

In Q3 fiscal 2025 (reported December 2024), MongoDB reported $529 million revenue (+22% YoY), with Atlas revenue up 34% YoY. Investors will look for similar execution in Q4.

I would think that MongoDB’s Q4 2025 earnings will hinge on:

1. Atlas Momentum: Can usage-based growth defy cloud cost scrutiny?

2. Profitability Balance: Balancing R&D investment (e.g., AI features) with margin improvement.

3. AI Narrative: Positioning as a critical data layer for AI/ML applications.

While MongoDB’s developer-centric model and cloud-native architecture give it a durable edge, its premium valuation demands flawless execution. For real-time insights, monitor:

• Management commentary on AI-driven demand.

• Updates on competitive threats (e.g., hyperscalers, Snowflake’s Unistore).

• FY2026 revenue guidance (consensus may project $2.0–2.1 billion, up ~20% YoY).

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think MDB would increase its customers base and also expand the Net ARR rate.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.