To The Moon

$BYD COMPANY(01211)$ 

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 

Rumors suggest Tesla and BYD might collaborate on Full Self-Driving (FSD), combining Tesla’s advanced autonomy tech with BYD’s massive EV market presence.

This could disrupt autonomous driving by accelerating adoption, lowering costs, and challenging competitors like Waymo and Xpeng.

Likely impacts include faster market penetration in China, reduced prices for consumers, and intensified competition, though regulatory and technical hurdles remain.

Evidence is speculative, based on recent statements and posts on X, with controversy over feasibility and job impacts.

Regardless of whether this potential collaboration noves forward, we are heralding the arrival of truly autonomous driving technology, a trillion dollar industry. Demonstrations of Huawei’s FSD in the Avatr line will fuel expectations of consumers clamoring for the latest in modern conveniences. If American automakers, the likes of GM, Ford and Stellantis, continue to focus on ICE vehicles,  their collapse despite billions in investment will be up in smoke and drill, baby, drill, maybe die, baby, die. 

Rumors of Tesla and BYD Collaboration on FSD

Recent buzz, fueled by posts on X and media reports, suggests a potential collaboration between Tesla and BYD on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. On March 4, 2025, BYD’s executive vice president, Stella Li, told the Financial Times that BYD supports working with Tesla to reduce petrol car usage, hinting at possible cooperation. A couple of X posts amplify this, speculating that BYD, lacking robust self-driving capabilities, could license Tesla’s FSD to integrate into its electric vehicles (EVs). This aligns with BYD’s dominance in China’s EV market—selling over 296,000 EVs and hybrids in January 2025—and Tesla’s push to deploy FSD in China after regulatory approval in 2024.

How This Could Disrupt Autonomous Driving

1. Accelerated Adoption in China and Beyond

Mechanism: Tesla’s FSD, considered a leader in Level 2+ autonomy, could be paired with BYD’s extensive EV lineup, including affordable models like the $9,500 Seagull. This would bring advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) to a broader audience faster than Tesla’s own production could alone.

Impact: China, the world’s largest auto market, could see a rapid shift toward autonomous-capable EVs. BYD’s 27% market share in January 2025 dwarfs Tesla’s 4.5%, offering a massive platform for FSD deployment. Globally, BYD’s expansion into Europe, Brazil, and Mexico could extend this reach.

Evidence: Posts on X suggest Tesla’s FSD is seen as superior by some buyers and experts, and BYD’s interest could leverage this perception.

2. Cost Reduction and Market Accessibility

Mechanism: BYD’s low-cost manufacturing—honed by its battery-making origins—combined with Tesla’s software could slash the price of autonomous-capable vehicles. Unlike Tesla’s premium pricing (e.g., Model 3 starts at ~$40,000), BYD’s inclusion of “God’s Eye” ADAS for free in 2025 models signals a strategy to commoditize smart driving tech.

Impact: Cheaper autonomous EVs could undercut competitors like Xpeng and NIO, forcing a price war. Consumers might access FSD-like features without the $8,000–$15,000 upcharge Tesla currently demands.

Evidence: BYD’s move to equip even budget models with ADAS contrasts with Tesla’s high-cost FSD rollout, hinting at a disruptive pricing synergy.

3. Intensified Competition

Mechanism: A Tesla-BYD partnership could challenge frontrunners like Waymo (expanding robotaxis in the US) and Chinese players like Huawei and Xpeng, who lead in urban autonomy. Tesla’s camera-based FSD, enhanced by BYD’s scale, might outpace lidar-reliant rivals in cost and deployment speed.

Impact: Competitors could lose market share or accelerate their own innovations. For instance, Xpeng’s stock fell 6.9% and NIO’s 6.7% after BYD’s “God’s Eye” announcement in February 2025, showing market sensitivity to such moves.

Evidence: Morgan Stanley noted in February 2025 that competition among Tesla, Waymo, and Chinese firms is key to robotaxi commercialization, a dynamic this collaboration could amplify.

4. Shift in Industry Dynamics

Mechanism: Collaboration might shift the focus from hardware (cars) to software and services (mobility-as-a-service). Tesla’s data advantage—billions of miles driven—paired with BYD’s production could pivot both firms toward a robotaxi model.

Impact: Traditional automakers and ride-hailing giants like Uber could face obsolescence if Tesla-BYD floods markets with affordable, autonomous EVs. Drivers might transition to fleet operators, buying robotaxis to stay relevant.

Evidence: Elon Musk’s vision of Tesla owners “falling asleep and waking up at their destination” (April 2024 call) aligns with BYD’s mass-market reach, potentially realizing this faster.

Uncertainties and Controversies

Regulatory Hurdles: China tightly regulates self-driving tech, and while Tesla gained FSD approval in 2024, scaling it via BYD could face scrutiny. Europe’s stricter rules might also limit global rollout.

Technical Integration: Merging Tesla’s camera-only FSD with BYD’s mixed-sensor “God’s Eye” (lidar, radar, cameras) could be complex, risking delays or performance gaps.

Job Impacts: As with Tesla’s Robotaxi, a BYD-FSD rollout could reduce demand for human drivers, sparking debate. X posts reflect driver concerns, mirrored by Uber driver Tristan Thomas’s fears of job loss (October 2024).

Speculative Nature: The collaboration remains unconfirmed. BYD’s past dismissal of full autonomy as “basically impossible” (April 2023) contrasts with recent openness, fueling skepticism.

Likely Outcome

If realized, this partnership could disrupt autonomous driving by combining Tesla’s tech edge with BYD’s scale, driving down costs and accelerating adoption, especially in China. By end-2025, we might see FSD-equipped BYD EVs on roads, pressuring competitors and shifting market dynamics toward affordable autonomy. However, regulatory, technical, and social challenges could slow this, making it a gradual rather than immediate upheaval. The evidence—rooted in rumors, executive hints, and market reactions—leans toward a transformative potential, though it’s not a done deal.