To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  

Short term Bearish 

Long term Bullish 

Back in May 2024, doomsayers on Reddit had this to say, Tesla will go the way of Blackberry, where they had the first mover advantage and lost it because they wouldn't innovate beyond what made them successful initially. Another Redditor had this to add, Tesla has a leadership problem, plain and simple. Elon is steering the ship into the ground, sounding ominous. Ironically, Tesla hit it's low of 2024 at $138 before rebounding on stronger earnings. Love it or hate it, his endorsement of Donald Trump was theb catalyst for Tesla rebound to $488. It's Mar 2025 and we are back to the same scenario, with Tesla’s stock price hitting a recent low of $250, a drop of 45%. Arguably, almost nothing has changed for the better, in fact things have take a turn for the worse. With Elon's focus in D. O. G. E and Chinese EVs chipping away at it's sales lead in Europe and plummeting salea in China, is it time to throw in the towel?

Will Tesla revisit it's low of $138 before rebounding on the back of robotaxis and robotics launches later in the year as promised by Elon? Or will these launches be further delayed causing the stock price to drop further? 

If Tesla price drops below $250, a potential revisit to $200-$250 ramge is likely. My long term strategy would be to DCA 25% for every $40 drop from $250.

Factors Against a Revisit to $138

Analyst Optimism: Despite cuts, many price targets remain above $138. Morgan Stanley reinstated Tesla as a “Top Pick” on March 3, 2025, with a $345 target, citing a 2025–2026 product cycle (e.g., Robotaxi, affordable models). The median analyst target is $245.97 (90 analysts), suggesting upside from $262.

Technical Support: Web analysis (Investopedia, Jan 2025) identifies support at $370 and $300, with $138 far below current levels. A drop to $138 would require a 47% decline from $262, unprecedented without a major catalyst.

Potential Catalysts: The Robotaxi launch (expected 2026) and rumored BYD collaboration on FSD could boost sentiment and stock price, reducing the likelihood of revisiting lows.

Likelihood

Based on current data, Tesla revisiting $138 by end-2025 seems unlikely without a significant negative event (e.g., a failed Robotaxi rollout or severe economic downturn). Sales struggles and sentiment are concerns, but analyst targets and technical levels suggest a floor above $200. A more plausible downside target, if bearish trends continue, is $150–$180, as speculated on X and supported by historical volatility (e.g., an 18% drop in five days in 2025).

Prediction: Tesla’s stock is unlikely to hit $138 in 2025 barring a major crisis, with a more probable range of $200–$250 by year-end, balancing risks and growth potential.

Current Sentiment on X (as of March 10, 2025)

Sentiment on X about Tesla’s stock is mixed but leans bearish, reflecting recent sales data and broader concerns about Elon Musk’s leadership. Here’s a snapshot based on recent posts:

Bearish Views:

@franzmeier451

(March 10): Claims a 70% sales drop and blames Musk, saying “you blew it this time,” indicating strong negativity.

@GlebShpirt

(March 7): Predicts no near-term rise, calls Tesla overvalued, and suggests a “real price” below $100, expecting worse sales data.

@200pipss

(March 8): Sees $150 as a target, citing plummeting car sales and lack of new models.

@SixSigmaCapital

(March 7): Suggests a $100–$140 range in a bear market and distrusts Tesla’s leadership.

Neutral to Cautious:

@TomTwr

(March 6): Notes a split in US sentiment—down with the Left, up with the Right—suggesting long-term stability if FSD succeeds, but no strong bullish push.

@dp_theboss

(March 7): Observes a lack of bottom ($194 as a potential low) and investor fear, implying uncertainty rather than outright pessimism.

Missing Bullish Sentiment: Recent X posts lack strong optimism. Earlier bullish takes (e.g., @squawksquare

, April 2024, awaiting a dip to $148–$149) don’t align with current dynamics, and no fresh pro-Tesla hype appears in the latest sample.

Overall Sentiment

Tone: Predominantly bearish, with users focusing on sales declines, Musk’s distractions, and overvaluation. Neutral voices acknowledge potential (e.g., FSD), but optimism is scarce.

Consensus: Posts suggest a belief Tesla is overvalued (current P/E ~58.33) and headed lower, with $100–$150 as common targets among skeptics.

Context: This aligns with web reports of a seven-week stock decline since Trump’s inauguration (CNBC, March 8), losing over 10% in the latest week, and hitting $270.48—its lowest since Election Day 2024.

Current X sentiment is bearish, driven by sales woes and distrust in Musk, though some hold out hope for FSD or a rebound. It contrasts with analyst optimism (e.g., Morgan Stanley), highlighting a divide between retail and institutional views.