To The Moon

After much waiting, the actuals are out.

Is it crunch time for $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ ? Let’s find out.

Q4 Forecast:

In my previous post (click here ! for details), I have shared Wall Street analysts’ estimates:

• Loss per share: -$0.42 per share.

• Revenue: RMB 20.19 billion.

Q4 Actuals:

• Loss per share: -$3.45 per share, that is a +8.5%YoY further loss. (see below)

• Revenue: RMB 19.70 billion, that is a +15.2% YOY gain but it misses analysts’ estimates.

• Net loss: RMB 7.11 billion, that is a +27.5% YoY increase.

• Gross profit: was RMB2.31 billion (US$316.3 million), that is a +80.5% YoY increase.

• Gross margin: climbed to 11.7% from 7.5% (Q4 2023), a welcome news. But its improvement paled in comparison to its peers - $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ (14.3%) and $Li Auto(LI)$ (20.5%).

FY 2024 Actuals:

• Total revenue: RMB 65.73 billion, that is +18.2% YoY increase from Q4 2023 (RMB 55.62 billion).

• Gross profit : RMB 6.49 billion that is a +112.8% YoY increase from Q4 2023 (RMB 3.05 billion).

• Gross margin: average for the year is 9.9%; that is a +440bp from Q4 2024 (5.5%).

Q1 2025 Guidance - Weak !

Investors were particularly disappointed by NIO's underwhelming Q1 2025 outlook.

• The company expects to deliver between 41,000 & 43,000 EVs, significantly lower than Q4 2024's 72,689 EVs.

• The forecast is also far below analysts' expectations of 65,052 EVs.

• NIO projects Q1 revenue of $1.69 - $1.76 billion, missing the $2.48 billion consensus estimate by a wide margin.

Stock Price Movement.

Is it any wonder why NIO’s share price fell (once again) after the results and weak Q1 guidance were out ? (see above)

• NIO closed off Fri, 21 March 2025 down by -4.46% ending the week at $4.50 per share.

• For the coming week, NIO’s support markers will be $4.37 & $4.23.

• Its resistant markers will be $4.63 & $4.75, although I don’t think it will be breached - ha, ha.

My viewpoints : (mine only)

Tracing through NIO’s loss per share thru the years (Q4 2022 to Q4 2024), it can be clearly seen that NIO has not make an effort to improve its numbers. It’s a case of 2 steps forward, 3 steps back.

As for its revenue, historically it has never met or better Wall Street’s estimates at all.

Yet, NIO’s CEO proudly proclaimed that in 2024, they achieved a new delivery record of 221,970 EVs.

However, he failed to mention that 250,000 EVs delivery was their 2024 target (and NIO premium line of EVs only), as announced by ex-CFO, Steven Feng (who has faded out of the company quietly) at the beginning of 2024 during a Bloomberg TV interview.

Furthermore, increase in vehicle sales in Q4 was due mainly to a greater delivery volume (of Onvo EVs), that comes offset by a lower average selling price.

Selective amnesia, perhaps ?

It is common knowledge that when C-suite personnel speaks, its representative of the management team right ?

NIO’s R&D expenses is still way too high for its own good.

For FY 2024 were RMB13.04 billion, that -2.9% YoY decrease from FY 2023. It is not coming down fast enough or revenue is not rising high enough to offset R&D expenses.

What is “interesting” though is “excluding” share-base compensation expenses” R&D expenses was RMB 11.74 billion, that is -1.5% YoY decrease from FY 2023.

For a ‘cash strapped’ struggling company, NIO has spent RMB $2 billion on staff ‘compensation’ ? That’s awesome !

There was no mention who were ‘compensated’ - C-suite members again ?

As a general rule of thumb, share-based compensation, which includes (a) stock options or (b) equity awards granted to employees as part of their remuneration packages.

Cash Cow Dilution.

It was “good” news to know that more Chinese EVs were hopping onto NIO’s network of battery swapping stations. So far, below are the “brands” of EV that has joined the network :

• Changan

• Geely

• Chery

• JAC

• GAC

• FAW

In addition, Lotus, that is owned by Chinese automaker Geely, is also mentioned as a partner that will be injecting monies to expand the network of swap stations.

What was supposed to be a pure play cash-cow for NIO, has now been watered down (to what extent, unsure). Pity that NIO could not go at it alone and reap all the benefits for itself, due to lack of capitals I supposed.

Perhaps Wall Street’s analyst’ s comments (after results were out) hit the nail on the head :

CCB International, Analyst, Qu Ke:

• NIO is facing pressure in controlling costs.

• The Chinese EV maker's costs grew faster than it sales because of the launch of two new brands, Onvo and Firefly, in 2024.

• NIO attempted to set itself apart in China's crowded EV space by focusing on advancing battery technology. It relies on battery-swapping stations rather than battery-charging ones for better efficiency, but that comes with higher setup costs.

After all that has been said, I hope NIO’s fans can still find the strong conviction to believe that NIO’s CEO - Li Bin will be able to deliver. I simply cannot, at least not in 2025 with an imminent recession in the US, that will like it or not, affect the rest of the world too.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• Will NIO rise with Q4 2024 earnings ?

• Powell speaks, Market listens, Stocks rally !

• Beat US Recession: 5 Gold Stocks to Buy ?

• Do you think NIO will be able to consistently perform every quarter going forward ?

• Do you think NIO’s CEO and Board of Directors should held accountable for its failure to launch?

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerEvents