To The Moon

$BlackRock( $BlackRock(BLK)$ )$ $JPMorgan Chase( $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ )$ $Morgan Stanley( $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ )$ $Wells Fargo( $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ )$ $S&P 500(. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ )$

This Friday, April 11, the Q1 2025 earnings season unofficially begins, with BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo stepping up to the plate. After a stellar Q4 2024 where financials topped the S&P 500, the mood has soured. Trump-era tariffs—revived and hitting hard—have sparked a market bloodbath, with bank stocks sliding double digits in a week. Even if these giants beat earnings estimates, can they dodge the tariff fallout? Let’s dive into how these trade barriers could reshape their numbers, what guidance to expect, and which bank might emerge as the diamond in the rough.

Tariffs: The Economic Curveball Banks Can’t Ignore

The return of Trump-era tariffs—think hefty levies on China and beyond—has markets on edge. Inflation’s ticking up, growth’s wobbling, and recession whispers are getting louder. Here’s how tariffs could rattle these banks:

• Loan Growth Stalls: Uncertainty makes businesses and consumers hesitant, shrinking demand for loans.

• Credit Risks Rise: A tariff-driven slowdown could hit borrowers hard, pushing up defaults.

• Trading Gets a Boost: Volatility is surging—banks with trading chops could see a windfall.

• Dealmaking Dries Up: M&A and IPOs might freeze as companies hunker down.

The stakes are high, and guidance will be everything. Can these banks convince investors they’ve got a plan?

Breaking It Down: How Tariffs Hit Each Bank

Let’s size up the players. Here’s a table showing their exposure and resilience:

Resilience scores reflect ability to withstand tariff impacts, with 10 being strongest.

• BlackRock (BLK): BLK’s an asset management titan—$10T+ in AUM. Tariffs could tank markets, slashing fees, but volatility might draw inflows to active funds.

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM): JPM’s a jack-of-all-trades: loans, trading, and more. Loan demand could falter, but their trading desk thrives in choppy waters.

• Morgan Stanley (MS): MS leans hard on investment banking. Tariffs choking deal flow? That’s a direct hit to revenue.

• Wells Fargo (WFC): WFC’s bread and butter is lending. If tariffs spark defaults, their balance sheet could bleed.

The Market’s Already Voting

JPM’s holding up best, while WFC’s taking the biggest beating. Earnings could flip the script—or dig the hole deeper.

Earnings Preview: Numbers and Nuggets to Watch

Analysts have their estimates, but tariffs are the X-factor. Here’s what’s on deck:

• JPMorgan Chase: EPS $4.60, Revenue $43.98B. Can trading revenue (+15% YoY in past volatile quarters) offset a loan growth dip?

• Morgan Stanley: EPS $1.75, Revenue $14.5B. Will they signal a deal rebound, or brace for a dry spell?

• Wells Fargo: EPS $1.30, Revenue $20.2B. Credit loss provisions are the wildcard—any uptick could spook investors.

• BlackRock: EPS $9.80, Revenue $4.9B. AUM growth (or shrinkage) will tell the tale.

Key Listening Point: Guidance under tariffs. If JPM hints at trading strength or WFC flags credit woes, markets will pounce.

My Optimist’s Bet: JPMorgan Chase

If I’m picking a winner, it’s JPMorgan Chase. Here’s why they’ve got the edge:

• Trading Muscle: In Q1 2019 (peak tariff panic), JPM’s trading revenue soared 18%. History could repeat.

• Revenue Mix: Loans might stall, but consumer banking and wealth management keep cash flowing.

• Rock-Solid Core: CET1 ratio at 15%—they can weather a storm and still buy back shares.

Tariffs hurt, but JPM’s built to pivot.

Risks to Watch

• Economic Meltdown: If tariffs trigger a recession, no bank’s safe—loan losses could swamp trading gains.

• Inflation Trap: Tariffs could keep rates high, crimping margins if the Fed stalls on cuts.

• Global Ripple: A trade war with China hits multinationals, dragging down MS and BLK.

Play the Game: Your Move

Friday’s reports are a litmus test. Are you banking on JPM’s versatility, eyeing BLK for a volatility play, or shorting WFC’s loan risks? Share your take below—let’s crowdsource the smartest bet for Q1 2025!

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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