To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ was the 2nd stock that came to mind after about Trump’s latest U-turn performance on his 145% tariffs against China, his latest tit-for-tat drama against China for not falling in lined like the rest of the other countries, slapped with ranging tariffs. (see below)

Think the old man has forgotten that he is dealing with the world’s second largest economies, awakened by US themselves back in 01 Jan 1979 by then President Jimmy Carter.

Trump’s 2 steps forward & 3 steps back antics is wearing everyone down - from Wall Street to his party members to the Fed and finally investors.

It is really time he reduces the nonsense and ill-conceived policy before he further damages what’s left of US reputation since re-taking office.

On Mon, 14 Apr 2025 when trading resumes, NVDA is highly likely to surge.

This will be largely driven by favorable tariff exemptions and broader market momentum.

Below is the breakdown (see if thoughts & argument are coherent).

Factors for Rally.

(1) Tariff Exemptions:

NVDA was explicitly named among tech firms exempt from the:

• +125% tariff on Chinese goods imported into US.

• +10% baseline levy imposed when Trump decided to halt his reciprocal tariffs after it has been effected for less than half a day.

Latest exemption reduces costs for its China-manufactured products (e.g., GPUs, servers) and in the process - (a) protect US listed companies’ margin and (b) maintains supply chain stability.

(2) Tech Sector Momentum:

• The Nasdaq composite surged +7.3% for the week ending 11 Apr 2025.

• This reflected strong investors’ appetite for tech stocks.

• Futures markets (including Nasdaq 100) are poised for a "big lift" from the tariff news come Sunday evening, with NVDA highlighted as a beneficiary by analysts covering the “latest” news from the White House.

(3) Market Sentiment:

• Wednesday’s historic rally (triggered by tariff paused) clearly showed that traders are reacting aggressively to trade policy shifts.

• A "risk-on" environment, evidenced by Bitcoin’s +5.3% rally, could amplify gains for growth stocks like NVDA.

Potential Surge Magnitude.

While there is a lack of specific surge/s to NVDA price targets, comparable indicators suggest:

• Sector Alignment: (a) Nasdaq’s +7.3% weekly gain and (b) $Apple(AAPL)$ +15% single-day surge (post-tariff pause) imply NVDA could see a +5% to +7% gains on Monday, aligning with its beta and sector leadership.

• Futures Impact: A "big lift" in Nasdaq futures Sunday evening may translate to a +3% – +5% pre-market gap-up for NVDA, with potential for further intraday momentum.

Risks to Consider.

Just to be sure, it is not all fine & dandy from now onwards with Trump’s tariffs’ exemptions (hor !).

This is because, there’s still:

• Residual Tariffs: A 20% tariff on Chinese electronics remains in place, which could slightly dampen upside.

• Macro Pressures: Rising US 10 year Treasury yields of +4.48% (see above) and volatile crude oil prices ($61.50/barrel) may inject caution, though these are outweighed by sector-specific tailwinds.

Summary.

In summary, NVDA is positioned for a +5% to +7% surge on Monday, driven by tariff relief and bullish tech sector trends.

This is “do-able” based on NVDA’s immediate surge on 9 Apr 2025 after tariffs’ pause. (see above)

More importantly - the tariffs incident reinforces the notion of “blue chip” stocks, they can really weather the storm in times of adversity.

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• Do you think NVDA will rise (pronto !) and recover all grounds lost so far ?

• Do you think US stock market will continue to recover lost grounds too ?

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