Weekly Macro Themes - Remain bullish EM equities on strengthening technicals

TopdownCharts
05-10

This week I covered the following topics:

1. Global Growth Pulse: Soft data slumped in April from already waning levels, but the global hard data pulse is on an improving trend (following the lead set by bullish leading indicators).

2. Ups & Downs: There is almost a precise balance of downside and upside risks on the list, it serves as a good reminder about not getting too carried away on the bull or bear side.

3. Commodities: Remain bullish given promising technicals (and flows/sentiment/positioning), cheap valuations, light capex, and mixed-to-positive demand outlook (with scope for upside).

4. Emerging Markets: Remain bullish EM equities on strengthening technicals, reset in sentiment/flows, cheap valuations, and light allocations by investors (+turning point in relative performance).

5. GSV vs ULG: The relative value gap between Global/Small/Value (GSV) and US/Large/Growth (ULG) remains near record low (cheap) levels, and GSV is cheap in absolute terms.

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