To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

May was a wild ride for the S&P 500, rocketing up 6.16% by May 29—its juiciest monthly gain of the year. After April’s brutal sell-off, this surge was a sweet rebound. If you were in the game, chances are your portfolio’s looking greener. But now what? The old saying “Sell in May and go away” is whispering in your ear, yet last year the market laughed it off and kept climbing. June, though? It’s got a shaky rep—never the year’s peak since 1980. So, are you banking profits or betting on more? Let’s dig into the dirt.

May’s Big Win: Did You Score?

A 6.16% climb in a month is no small potatoes—it’s the S&P 500’s best showing this year. Coming off April’s slump, this rally was a lifeline for investors. If you held broad index funds or stocks mirroring the S&P, you’re likely counting some gains. But not everyone’s popping champagne—your mileage depends on what you owned and how you played it. Here’s a snapshot of 2024 so far:

May’s monster run erased April’s losses and then some. But with June knocking, the real question is whether this hot streak has legs—or if it’s time to cash out.

“Sell in May” Smackdown: Hold the Phone?

The “Sell in May and go away” crowd argues you should ditch stocks now and chill until November, dodging the summer blahs. History backs them up—sort of. Summer months often lag. But last year? The market flipped the script, charging ahead despite the adage. This year, May’s already defied the doomsters. So, is June the cooldown or the continuation? Since 1980, June’s never been the market’s yearly high, averaging a puny 0.2% gain. That’s not a death sentence, but it’s not fireworks either.

June’s Jinx: Peak-Free Since ‘80

Here’s the stat that’ll make you pause: in over four decades, June has never been the S&P 500’s top month for the year. It’s not a total wash—some Junes shine, others tank—but it’s never the summit. Check out the last 10 years:

June’s a rollercoaster—big wins like 2019 and 2023, but gut punches like 2022. No peaks, though. If you’re thinking long-term, this might mean the year’s best is still ahead. Short-term? It’s a gamble.

Cash Out or Double Down?

Time to pick a lane. Here’s the breakdown:

Case to Hold

• Rally Fuel: May’s momentum could spill over. Tech’s still buzzing, and AI hype isn’t fading.

• Big Picture: June’s no peak, so the ceiling might be higher later this year.

• Economic Vibes: A soft Fed landing could keep stocks afloat.

Case to Sell

• Seasonal Snooze: June’s track record is meh—why risk it?

• Profit Protection: A 6.16% gift is worth locking in before a dip.

• Choppy Waters: Options expirations and Fed moves could rattle things.

What’s Your Gut Saying?

May handed you a win—congrats if you caught it. Now, June’s the crossroads. History says it won’t be the year’s high, but it’s not a guaranteed flop either. If you’re nervy, take some chips off the table. If you’re greedy, ride the wave—just don’t get blindsided. The market’s a beast, and May proved it’s still got teeth. June might bite, or it might purr. Your call.

Bottom Line: You made money in May—now it’s gut-check time. Sell and sleep easy, or hold and chase the dragon. June’s no crystal ball, but it’s rarely the top. Play smart.

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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