To The Moon

Last Friday.

On Fri, 06 Jun 2025, US stock markets rallied, with the S&P 500 climbing +1.03% to surpass the 6,000-point mark for the first time since February 2025.

On Fri, 13 Jun 2025, US stock markets faced a sharp downturn, with the S&P 500 dipping below the 6,000-point mark to close at 5,977, down -1.13% to close off the week.

The Dow fell more than 700 points, ending the session down -1.79%, while Nasdaq declined by -1.3%. For the week, each composite index fell by -0.46% , -1.38%, -0.85% respectively.

Despite Friday rout, earlier in the week the S&P 500 had reached as high as 6,045.26, less than 2% from its all-time high, buoyed by optimism over (a) US-China trade negotiations and (b) softer-than-expected inflation data.

However, the late-week geopolitical shock of Israel surprised attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, erased much of those gains.

For The Week

US markets experienced heightened volatility, driven by several key catalysts beyond the geopolitical developments.

Economic Indicators

(1) Inflation Data:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose just 0.1% MoM, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.4%, slightly below forecasts and suggesting that tariffs had not yet meaningfully impacted consumer prices. (see above)

Core inflation also remained subdued, easing investor concerns about runaway prices.

(2) Labour / Jobs Market:

The “positive” surprise from the previous week’s non-farm payroll report (139,000 jobs added in May 2025 and unemployment holding steady at 4.2%) continued to support sentiment early in the week. (see above)

Although Thursday’s Weekly jobless claims for the week ending 07 Jun 2025 ticked up to 247,000 and Continuing claims adding further 54,000 claims to 1.956 million, the highest level since 13 Nov.

(3) Consumer Sentiment:

The University of Michigan’s preliminary June survey showed a significant rebound in consumer sentiment. (see above)

The the index rising to 60.5 from 52.2 in May 2025, reflecting improved outlooks despite ongoing anxieties over tariffs and economic growth.

Political Volatility

The feud between Elon Musk and President Trump persisted, fueling volatility in $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ shares and rippling through the broader technology sector.

The $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ saw notable swings as investors reacted to headlines and shifting sentiment, giving up most of the gains chalked up during the week. (see above)

US-China Relations.

High-level trade talks between US and China in London, culminated in a framework agreement.

China committed to approve export licenses for critical rare earth metals, while the US agreed to ease certain tech curbs and student visa restrictions, pending final approval by both presidents.

While President Trump hailed the outcome as a “deal,” the limited details and lack of immediate tariff relief left markets cautious about the durability of the truce.

This diplomatic progress temporarily improved risk appetite, though the lack of concrete tariff rollbacks and continued threats of future increases kept investors on edge

Week of June 16 - 20

Key catalysts to watch include:

• Ongoing fallout from Middle East tensions and their impact on energy prices and market sentiment.

• The Fed’s policy meeting, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged, with guidance on future moves will be closely scrutinized.

• Further developments in US-China trade implementation and any new tariff announcements.

• Continued monitoring of US political headlines, particularly the Trump-Musk dynamic and its influence on tech sector volatility.

Nvidia’s Outlook for the Week.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ended last week with a resistant performance, losing about -0.91% only by Friday for the week.

Nvidia remains a focal point in the AI-driven technology rally, bolstered by robust earnings and continued demand for its latest-generation chips.

However, export restrictions to China and concerns about future revenue to cover that shortfall of $2.5 billion (in Q1 2025) and a possible $8.0 billion (in Q2 2025).

Technical Analysis.

Nvidia is approaching a significant resistance level near $150.57, a target that could be tested in the coming weeks or months, depending on how fast Middle East tension de-escalates.

Key support is identified at $137.15, with the stock expected to trade within this range barring any major news or market shocks.

Nvidia’s fundamentals remain strong, with management projecting Q2 2026 revenue of $45 billion (±2%) and maintaining high gross margins.

My Personal Viewpoints: (mine only)

• On 09 Jun 2025, Nvidia’s stock price is near all-time highs, closing at $142.63, after a strong run in recent weeks.

• Nvidia is likely to remain under investor’s focus, and it is poised to test upper resistance levels.

• However, with the stock already up significantly and market sentiment showing signs of caution, there is a higher chance of a short-term pullback or sideways movement this week.

• This comes as investors might take profits and wait for new catalysts, especially if there is breakthrough for Nvidia on access to China’s market.

This is why investors will need to pay close attention to US-China trade talks and any updates on chip export restrictions, as these would influence Nvidia’s near-term stock price.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• CPI Out. Will Fed cut interest on 18 Jun ? Fri, 13 June. Picked post.

• Musk predicts Recession. 3 Stocks to invest. Thu, 12 June. Picked post.

• TSLA - Get Out While Ahead, Like Cathie ? Thu, 12 June. Ideal post.

• Do you think US-China trade talk will have more details in coming few weeks ’?

• Do you think Nvidia will able to break through its $150 resistant-level this week?

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