To The Moon

Despite the dramatic headlines, markets have been surprisingly resilient in the face of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The S&P 500 and Dow both closed higher on June 23, buoyed by expectations of Fed rate cuts and a relatively muted Iranian response. Oil prices actually fell, and recession odds dropped sharply—from 66% in May to just 27% now. So while geopolitics grabbed the spotlight, investors seem more focused on macro fundamentals than missiles.

As for Israel, its stock market has been even more defiant. The TA-125 index hit a 52-week high on June 19, up 16% year-to-date and outperforming the S&P 500’s 2% gain. Even after reports of missile strikes on Tel Aviv’s exchange building, the index rallied—suggesting strong domestic confidence and perhaps a belief that the worst of the conflict is behind.

So where to invest? U.S. stocks offer global exposure and rate-cut tailwinds, while Israeli equities are showing surprising strength and may benefit from post-conflict reconstruction and tech resilience. If you’re risk-tolerant, a barbell approach—mixing U.S. tech and Israeli infrastructure or defense—could offer both stability and upside.