To The Moon

6100 INCOMING!!!

Right, so here’s the story. With the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closing at 6092.18 on 24th June, let’s just call it 6093, up a solid 1.11%, we’re basically sitting at the doorstep of that magical 6100 level. Only 7 points away - that’s like ordering kopi at the coffeeshop, you’re already there!

The Numbers Don’t Lie

1. Look, when you break down the technicals, it’s quite straightforward. The index just hit 6093 which puts us tantalizingly close to that psychological barrier. In Singapore terms, it’s like being at Orchard MRT and trying to get to Somerset - you’re practically there already. The momentum from the huge gain shows buying interest is still strong, and volume patterns suggest institutions aren’t dumping yet.

The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$  is also playing along nicely. Current levels around 19912.53 points show tech stocks haven’t rolled over despite all the rate uncertainty. When the Nasdaq holds up, the SPX usually follows through - it’s been that way since the tech boom days.

Fed’s Mixed Signals Creating Opportunity

Here’s where it gets interesting. The Fed governors have been dropping hints about July rate cuts, even though cutting rates in July remains unlikely . But markets don’t always wait for certainty - they price in possibilities. That 18.6% probability for July cuts might sound small, but it’s like double what we had last week.

Think about it this way: if you’re investing money in Singapore and you hear even whispers about easier monetary policy from the world’s most important central bank, you’re not going to sit on cash earning nothing. You’ll chase yield in equities, especially when they’re already showing momentum.

The Path to 6100 is Clear

From 6093 to 6100 - that’s just 0.11%. In normal market conditions, that’s barely a morning’s move. We’ve seen bigger swings during lunch breaks. The key levels to watch are simple: any close above 6100 opens the door to 6150-6200 range, while a rejection back below 6050 might signal some consolidation.

The beauty of this setup is the risk-reward. You’re not chasing the market 500 points higher - you’re positioning for a final push through a round number that’s been staring everyone in the face.

Bottom Line

With SPX already at 6093 and Fed dovishness creeping in, reaching 6100 isn’t about hoping for miracles. It’s about recognizing when all the pieces are aligned for a straightforward technical breakout. Sometimes the obvious trade is the right trade.

credits Hedgeye