To The Moon

Market Outlook of S&P500 (14Jul25)

Technical observations:

• MACD - a top crossover should be completed over the coming days, and this implies a potential reversal is coming.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend.

• Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.

• A golden cross is completed. This is typically a bullish signal when backed with strong volume.

• The CMF is positive at 0.23, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods.

From the technical analysis, we are seeing a “Strong Buy” rating with the daily interval. There are 20 indicators with a “Buy” rating and none showing a “Sell” rating.

Now, let us look at the candlestick patterns.

Outlook and Implications for the Coming Week (With help from Grok)

• Short-Term Outlook (July 14–18, 2025): The S&P 500 is likely to start the week with a bearish bias, driven by the Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing patterns from June 16. If the price has fallen further, the downtrend could continue. A potential scenario for the week includes:

• Long-Term Outlook: The long-term trend remains neutral, with the risk of turning bearish if the price breaks below 5,796.34 with strong selling pressure. A hold above this level with new bullish patterns could restore the bullish outlook, but the current correction mirrors the early 2025 decline, suggesting caution.

• Actionable Insight: For the coming week, monitor the price action around 5,796.34 (200 MA) closely. A break below this level with high volume would favor a bearish outlook. A bounce with a bullish and rising volume could indicate a reversal. Check daily and weekly candlestick formations mid-week for confirmation, as the monthly candle’s close on July 31 will provide further clarity on the Evening Star’s completion.

The candlestick patterns suggest a bearish short-term outlook for the coming week, with a neutral long-term outlook, indicating the S&P 500 may continue its correction unless a bullish reversal emerges at key support levels.

Compiling the above information, we can expect the market to rally with a reversal (to downtrend) to follow.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$