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Economic Calendar (14Jul25)

Economic Outlook (with help from Grok)

• The most watched news should be the CPI (inflation) and PPI (inflation hitting producers). This would have some implications for how the Federal Reserve approaches the coming interest rate decision.

• CPI forecasts (Core at 0.3% MoM, YoY at 2.4%) indicate a warming inflation environment. If actual data aligns or undershoots, it could reduce expectations of Fed rate hikes, supporting risk assets.

• A modest PPI increase (0.2%) suggests producer price pressures, reinforcing a growing inflation outlook.

• Weak retail sales forecasts (Core at 0.3%, overall at 0.0%) point to sluggish consumer spending, which could signal a broader economic slowdown if the trend continues.

• Initial Jobless Claims at 227K previously suggested stability. Any significant deviation could influence perceptions of labor market health, a key factor for Fed policy.

• The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at -4.0 indicates ongoing contraction. A further decline could highlight manufacturing weakness.

• Crude oil inventories’ prior build (7.070M) suggests oversupply. Continued builds might ease energy costs, while a drawdown could add inflationary pressure.

Market Implications

• Equities: A probable higher CPI and retail sales weakness might pressure stocks due to growth concerns.

• Bonds: Rising inflation data could prop up Treasury yields, supporting bond prices, especially if consumer weakness signals economic softening.

• Commodities: Oil prices may decline with another inventory build, potentially benefiting consumers but pressuring energy stocks.

@TigerStars

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