To The Moon

🚀 ASML & TSMC Earnings: New High Looming, Justify AI Boom? 

ASML $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$  and TSMC just dropped their Q2 earnings—and it’s not just about chips anymore, it’s about defining the next phase of the AI supercycle. 

After a mixed Q1 (TSMC surprised to the upside while ASML stumbled), the stakes were sky-high heading into this week. The question on every investor’s mind: does the data justify the surge in semiconductor valuations, or are we chasing a mirage in the AI heat?

📈 TSMC’s Sales Surprise Let’s start with the standout. 

$TSM reported a 39% YoY jump in June sales—blowing past expectations and signaling that the AI compute wave is accelerating, not slowing. The big driver? H100 chip demand and hyperscaler orders from names like Nvidia and AMD. 

TSMC remains at the heart of the AI infrastructure buildout. Its cutting-edge 3nm process is now embedded in next-gen devices and cloud workloads, giving it unrivaled pricing power. With this kind of growth, it’s no wonder TSMC’s stock is flirting with all-time highs. The bigger question is: does this beat signal another multi-quarter run?

🔬 ASML’s Q1 Stumble – Redemption in Q2?

 Meanwhile, $ASML had something to prove. The company missed in Q1, mainly due to order pushouts. But now? Analysts are watching for a rebound in EUV system demand, especially with major cloud players and chipmakers frontloading capex for AI. 

The geopolitical backdrop plays in ASML’s favor: with the CHIPS Act and “friend-shoring” strategies gaining steam, western nations are doubling down on domestic fab capabilities—and ASML remains the only name in the world that can provide advanced EUV lithography tools. If Q2 numbers show a backlog build and strong guidance, we could be looking at a quiet breakout stock this earnings season.

🌐 Macro View: 

Semis and the AI Trade Year-to-date, semiconductors are crushing it—driving the S&P and Nasdaq to new highs. And the leaders aren’t just $NVDA and $SMCI. The backbone plays—$TSM, $ASML, $AMD—are all enjoying multiple expansion on the back of insatiable AI demand. The narrative is powerful: we’re still in early innings of the AI infrastructure wave. But that narrative only holds if these companies keep executing. So far? Check for TSMC. Jury’s out for ASML.

🧠 Beyond Hype: 

Are We in AI Bubble Territory? Of course, retail investors are starting to ask: is this just 2021 redux? Look at the valuations—ASML trading at over 35x forward earnings, TSMC near 25x. These aren’t cheap stocks anymore, and much of the AI optimism may already be baked in. Still, unlike frothy small caps or meme names, these are mission-critical businesses with high ROIC, deep moats, and global dependencies. The risk isn’t a total collapse—it’s a pause or digestion phase, especially if macro surprises to the downside or if demand tapers post-2025.

💡 Strategic Takeaway for Investors

 Here’s the bullish case. 

$ASML is a literal monopoly in advanced chipmaking equipment. Its tech moat is 10 years wide, and no rival is even close. As demand for leading-edge semis rises, so does its pricing power. $TSM, meanwhile, is the factory floor of the AI age. Every major AI chip—from Nvidia’s to Apple’s—is built on its nodes. Together, ASML and TSMC form the backbone of a global AI supply chain that no country can afford to ignore. Yes, earnings are short-term signals. But the structural edge is undeniable. The pullbacks, if any, could be setups—not exits.

💬 Where Do You Stand? Are you bullish on semiconductors this earnings season? Can TSMC’s blockbuster growth fuel another leg higher in tech? Is ASML due for a re-rating, or still lagging? And most importantly—do you believe the AI-fueled rally is overdone, or just getting warmed up? Drop your take below. $TSM $ASML $NVDA $SMCI $SOXX 👇

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