To The Moon

The week of July 21, 2025, is set to be a blockbuster for investors, with Q2 earnings from heavyweights like Tesla and Alphabet, lingering effects from last week’s “Crypto Week” legislation, and macroeconomic data shaping market sentiment. Last week’s passage of three crypto bills—GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act—ignited crypto stocks, while earnings from banks and tech giants like Netflix and TSMC fueled sector momentum. The S&P 500’s steady hold at 6,263.26 and Nasdaq’s record highs at 20,630 reflect optimism, but the VIX at 15.94 signals volatility as tariff negotiations and geopolitical tensions loom. From tech titans to crypto leaders and consumer standouts, this week offers explosive opportunities. This report highlights key market catalysts, top stocks to watch, and strategic trading approaches to seize the moment while managing risks.

Market Catalysts: What’s Driving the Action

Q2 Earnings Season

The Q2 earnings season continues to drive volatility, with key reports this week:

• Tuesday, July 22: General Electric (GE) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) report, offering insights into industrial and defense sectors. Strong results could lift related stocks.

• Wednesday, July 23: Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOG) drop Q2 earnings, critical for tech and EV sectors. Tesla’s expected $0.30 EPS and $19.34 billion revenue face headwinds from a 14% delivery drop, while Alphabet’s $2.25 EPS and $93.75 billion revenue hinge on AI and cloud growth.

• Thursday, July 24: IBM and Honeywell report, potentially influencing tech and industrial sentiment. IBM’s AI focus and Honeywell’s diversified portfolio could set the tone.

Last week’s earnings from Netflix ($7.06 EPS, $11 billion revenue) and TSMC ($2.37 EPS, $20.8 billion revenue) beat expectations, boosting tech momentum. Banks like JPMorgan ($4.47 EPS) and Citigroup ($1.39 EPS) also outperformed, though Wells Fargo’s guidance cut (-5% stock drop) highlighted risks.

Crypto Week Aftermath

The passage of three crypto bills on July 17—GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Act—has fueled a crypto bull market, with Bitcoin at $118,000 and Ethereum at $3,600. The GENIUS Act’s stablecoin regulations boost stocks like Circle (CRCL), while the CLARITY Act’s clarity could drive institutional inflows, lifting Coinbase (COIN). Continued momentum or profit-taking could influence crypto stocks this week.

Economic Data Releases

• June Retail Sales (July 17): Last week’s data showed consumer strength, supporting stocks like Delta Air Lines (DAL). Its impact could linger, with strong spending lifting consumer discretionary sectors.

• June CPI (July 15): Reported at 2.33%, the lowest since January 2019, it raised Fed rate cut odds to 70% for September, per futures markets, boosting growth stocks like NVIDIA and Alphabet.

• Beige Book (July 16): Indicated stable economic conditions, potentially reinforcing rate-cut expectations this week.

Tariff and Geopolitical Risks

Trump’s tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada, effective August 1) remain a wildcard, with negotiations ongoing. A deal could lift tech (NVDA, MSFT) and consumer stocks (DAL); a breakdown might trigger a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback to 5,800-6,000. The Israel-Iran conflict (oil at $75/barrel) supports energy stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) but pressures consumer sectors.

Social media sentiment on X is bullish, with users hyping Tesla’s Model Y L launch, Alphabet’s AI growth, and crypto bill momentum, but tariff fears spark warnings of a “market correction.”

Stocks to Watch: July 21 Onwards

Here’s a curated list of stocks poised for action this week, driven by earnings, crypto legislation, and sector trends:

• Tesla ( $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ): Up 10% YTD to $315.35, Q2 earnings (July 23) expect $0.30 EPS and $19.34 billion revenue. The Model Y L launch could drive sentiment, targeting $350-$400 on a bullish outlook, with support at $300.

• Alphabet ( $Alphabet(GOOG)$ ): Down 16% YTD to $185, Q2 earnings (July 23) expect $2.25 EPS and $93.75 billion revenue. AI and cloud growth could push it to $200-$220, with support at $170.

• Coinbase ( $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ): Up 171% YTD to $398.20, driven by crypto bill passage and Bitcoin’s $118K surge. Targets $420, with support at $350.

• NVIDIA ( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ): Up 171% YTD to $167, with China sales and AI dominance fueling momentum. Targets $190, with support at $150.

• Delta Air Lines ( $DALATA HOTEL GP(DAL.UK)$ ): Up 5% recently to $50, with a 10% revenue growth outlook. Targets $60, with support at $45.

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Q2 earnings reported $4.47 EPS (up 15% YoY). Targets $190, with support at $175.

• Citigroup (C): Q2 EPS reported at $1.39 (up 12% YoY). Targets $70, with support at $55.

• Wells Fargo (WFC): Q2 earnings showed NII recovery, but guidance cut. Targets $60, with support at $50.

• Microsoft (MSFT): Up 30% YTD to $475, with Q2 earnings (July 29) forecasting $65 billion revenue. Targets $550, with support at $450.

• Palantir (PLTR): Up 100% YTD to $40, with 36% Q1 revenue growth. Targets $45, with support at $35.

Key News and Highlights

Q2 Earnings Season

• Tesla (July 23): Expected $0.30 EPS and $19.34 billion revenue, down 29% and 9% YoY, due to a 14% delivery drop. Elon Musk’s commentary on the Model Y L launch could drive sentiment, with a bullish outlook targeting $350-$400 or a miss testing $300.

• Alphabet (July 23): Forecasted $2.25 EPS and $93.75 billion revenue, up 15% YoY, driven by AI and cloud growth. A beat could push GOOG to $200-$220; a miss might test $170.

• Last Week’s Earnings: Netflix’s Q2 beat ($7.06 EPS, $11 billion revenue) and TSMC’s ($2.37 EPS, $20.8 billion revenue) set a bullish tone for tech. Banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup outperformed, while Wells Fargo’s guidance cut dampened sentiment.

Crypto Week Aftermath

The passage of the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Act on July 17 has fueled a crypto bull market, with Bitcoin at $118,000 and Ethereum at $3,600. Coinbase could see further upside if institutional inflows continue, while Circle (CRCL) benefits from stablecoin regulations.

Economic Data

• June Retail Sales (July 17): Strong consumer spending supports travel stocks like DAL, with effects lingering into July 21.

• June CPI (July 15): At 2.33%, it boosted rate-cut odds to 70% for September, supporting growth stocks like NVDA and MSFT.

• Beige Book (July 16): Stable economic conditions reinforce rate-cut expectations, potentially lifting tech and consumer stocks this week.

Tariff and Geopolitical Context

Trump’s tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) have softened, with negotiations ongoing. A deal could lift tech (NVDA, GOOG) and consumer stocks (DAL); a breakdown might trigger a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback. The Israel-Iran conflict (oil at $75/barrel) supports XOM but pressures consumer sectors.

Trading Opportunities

Short-Term Plays

• Buy Tesla on Earnings Dip: Enter at $300-$310, target $350-$400, stop at $280. A 10-27% gain if Model Y L commentary is bullish.

• Buy Alphabet on Dip: Grab at $170-$180, target $200-$220, stop at $160. An 8-19% gain if Q2 earnings beat.

• Buy Coinbase on Crypto Momentum: Enter at $350-$360, target $420, stop at $330. A 10-20% gain if crypto inflows continue.

• Options Straddle: Buy $315.35 calls/puts on TSLA or $185 calls/puts on GOOG for earnings volatility.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold NVIDIA: Buy at $150-$155, target $200-$220, for 22-34% upside with AI growth.

• Hold Microsoft: Buy at $450-$460, target $550, for 15-22% upside with cloud/AI growth.

• Hold Delta Air Lines: Buy at $45-$47, target $60, for 25-30% upside with consumer strength.

• Diversify with Tech ETF (XLK): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, for broad tech exposure.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $15, target $18, stop at $13, to hedge against tariff or earnings volatility.

• SPY ETF Puts: Use puts at $614 to protect against a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback.

• Gold ETF (GLD): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven hedge.

My Trading Plan

I’m cautiously bullish on Tesla and Alphabet for their earnings-driven upside and Coinbase for its crypto momentum, but I’m wary of tariff and geopolitical risks. I’ll buy TSLA at $300-$310, targeting $350-$400, with a $280 stop, and GOOG at $170-$180, targeting $200-$220, with a $160 stop. For crypto exposure, I’ll add COIN at $350-$360, targeting $420, with a $330 stop.

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