To The Moon

Bitcoin (BTC) has hit a speed bump, dropping for three consecutive days to hover around $118,458 after peaking at $122,780 on July 14, 2025. This pullback, marked by spiking profit-taking and capital rotation to altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), has sparked debate: Is this a short-term consolidation or the start of a trend reversal? With Bitcoin’s dominance at 63%, down slightly from 65% earlier this year, and crypto stocks showing divergent performances, investors are reassessing their strategies. Could Trump’s crypto-friendly policies, unveiled during “Crypto Week” (July 14-18, 2025), reshape the $9 trillion pension market and fuel further gains? Which crypto stock is the best long-term hold in this volatile landscape? This report explores Bitcoin’s recent dip, altcoin trends, regulatory impacts, and strategic investment approaches to navigate the crypto market’s next moves.

Bitcoin’s Recent Performance: A Tale of Peaks and Pullbacks

Bitcoin’s July 2025 journey has been a rollercoaster, with a 4-month rally pushing it to a record high of $122,780 before the recent 3-day decline to $118,458, a 3.5% drop. The cryptocurrency’s 27% year-to-date (YTD) gain outpaces the S&P 500’s 18%, driven by institutional inflows and regulatory optimism. However, profit-taking and altcoin rotation have introduced short-term volatility.

The chart above tracks Bitcoin’s price alongside Ethereum from July 1 to July 25, 2025, highlighting the recent peak and subsequent consolidation. Key drivers include:

• Institutional Inflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed $150 billion in 2025, with a single-day inflow of $1.18 billion on July 10, per Reuters.

• Regulatory Tailwinds: The House’s “Crypto Week” introduced three bills—GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act—potentially providing regulatory clarity, per CNBC.

• Macroeconomic Support: June 2025 CPI at 2.33%, the lowest since January 2019, and a 70% chance of a September rate cut bolster risk assets, per futures markets.

Yet, technical indicators signal caution:

• RSI: At 68.46, Bitcoin is in neutral territory, down from overbought levels above 70, per CoinCodex.

• Moving Averages: The price has fallen below key EMAs ($117,868-$118,247), with a bearish MACD profile, per CoinDCX.

• Support/Resistance: Support at $110,000-$115,000, resistance at $125,000, per Changelly.

Is the Bull Run Losing Steam?

Short-Term Consolidation

The 3-day drop appears driven by:

• Profit-Taking: $1.1 billion in short liquidations and exchange outflows (317,000 ETH in July) indicate investors locking in gains, per 10x Research.

• Altcoin Rotation: Capital flowing to Ethereum (up 26% weekly to $3,600) and Solana (up 21% monthly to $302.50) suggests a shift in focus, per TradingView.

• Overbought Conditions: RSI above 70 earlier in July signaled overbought territory, prompting a correction, per CoinCodex.

Analysts like Jeff Mei of BTSE predict a short-term dip to $110,000-$115,000 but see institutional buying as a buffer, with $125,000 possible in 1-2 months, per CNBC.

Long-Term Bullish Case

Despite the pullback, fundamentals remain strong:

• Institutional Demand: Corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy ($10 billion BTC) and Tesla ($1.5 billion) continue to accumulate, per Investopedia.

• Halving Effect: The 2024 halving reduced supply growth, historically driving price surges, per Bitpanda.

• Analyst Forecasts: Finder.com predicts $145,167 by year-end, Standard Chartered $200,000, and ARK Invest $1 million by 2030, per WFTV.

The evidence leans toward a short-term consolidation rather than a trend reversal, with a potential 5-10% pullback offering buying opportunities.

Altcoin Rotation: Will Bitcoin’s Dominance Decline?

Bitcoin’s dominance, at 63%, has slipped from 65% earlier in 2025, reflecting capital rotation to altcoins:

• Ethereum (ETH): Up 80% YTD to $3,600, driven by DeFi (60% of $100 billion TVL) and spot ETH ETF inflows of $717 million in a single day, per Reuters. Forecasts range from $4,205 to $6,993 by year-end, per CoinCodex.

• Solana (SOL): Up 101% YTD to $302.50, with a 65,000 TPS blockchain and $5 billion TVL in DeFi, per TradingView.

• Other Altcoins: XRP, BNB, and Cardano have gained 10-15%, indicating a broader altcoin rally.

This rotation could pressure Bitcoin’s price short-term as investors chase higher returns in altcoins. However, Bitcoin’s role as a store of value ensures its dominance won’t fall below 50% soon, per market analysts. The altcoin surge complements rather than undermines Bitcoin’s bull run.

Trump’s Crypto Policy: A Game-Changer for Pensions?

The House’s “Crypto Week” introduced three bills with significant implications:

• GENIUS Act: Regulates stablecoins with 1:1 cash backing, boosting adoption and indirectly supporting Bitcoin’s ecosystem.

• CLARITY Act: Classifies digital assets as securities or commodities, likely placing Bitcoin under CFTC oversight, reducing uncertainty.

• Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act: Prohibits a Federal Reserve digital currency, preserving decentralized cryptocurrencies.

These bills, with a 95% passage chance for the GENIUS Act, per Polymarket, could legitimize crypto for the $9 trillion pension market. Experts like FV Bank’s Miles Paschini highlight “increasing institutional demand” and “Bitcoin treasury companies” driving price growth against limited supply (95% of 21 million BTC mined), per Investopedia. A 1% pension fund allocation could add billions to Bitcoin’s $2.35 trillion market cap, per Coinbase.

Risks include:

• Regulatory Delays: Unfavorable amendments or delays could dampen sentiment, per Reuters.

• Market Volatility: A 5-10% S&P 500 pullback to 5,800-6,000 could impact risk assets, per Morgan Stanley.

• Geopolitical Tensions: The Israel-Iran conflict (oil at $75/barrel) and U.S.-China trade risks could pressure markets, per Euronews.

Crypto Stocks: Divergence and Long-Term Holds

Crypto stocks have shown mixed performance:

• Coinbase ( $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ): Up 171% YTD to $398.20, driven by Bitcoin’s rally and increased trading volumes ($2 billion Q1 2025 revenue, up 36% YoY). Its diversified revenue (trading, custody, staking) and regulatory compliance make it a top long-term hold, per Yahoo Finance.

• MicroStrategy ( $Strategy(MSTR)$ ): Up 55% YTD to $150, with a $10 billion Bitcoin treasury amplifying its correlation to BTC. Its high beta (1.96) offers leveraged exposure but also higher risk, per Bloomberg.

• Riot Blockchain ( $Riot Platforms(RIOT)$ ): Up 20% YTD to $12, benefiting from Bitcoin mining but facing energy cost pressures, per Reuters.

• Others: Stocks like Marathon Digital ( $MARA Holdings(MARA)$ ) and Bitfarms ( $Bitfarms Ltd.(BITF)$ ) have lagged, reflecting operational challenges in mining, per Investing.com.

Why Coinbase Stands Out

Coinbase’s market leadership, diversified revenue, and resilience to regulatory shifts make it the strongest long-term hold. Its Q1 2025 net profit of $88 million and 117 million verified users underscore its stability, per TipRanks. While MicroStrategy offers high upside tied to Bitcoin’s price, its concentrated exposure increases risk. Riot Blockchain’s mining focus makes it vulnerable to energy costs and halving effects.

Trading and Investment Strategies

Short-Term Plays

• Buy Bitcoin on Dip: Enter at $110,000-$115,000, target $130,000-$135,000, stop at $105,000. A 13-18% gain if institutional buying resumes.

• Buy Ethereum on Dip: Grab at $3,400-$3,600, target $4,200-$4,500, stop at $3,200. An 11-25% gain on ETF inflows.

• Buy Coinbase on Dip: Enter at $350-$360, target $420-$450, stop at $330. A 10-20% gain on crypto momentum.

• Options Straddle: Buy $118,458 calls/puts on BTC for volatility around regulatory news, targeting 200-300% gains if the price moves 10%+.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold Bitcoin: Buy at $110,000-$115,000, target $150,000-$200,000 by 2026, for 30-70% upside with institutional adoption.

• Hold Coinbase: Buy at $350-$360, target $450-$500, for 25-39% upside with crypto market growth.

• Hold MicroStrategy: Buy at $140-$150, target $200-$220, for 33-57% upside with Bitcoin exposure.

• Diversify with Tech ETF (XLK): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, for broad tech exposure.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $15, target $18, stop at $13, to hedge against tariff or market volatility.

• SPY ETF Puts: Use puts at $614 to protect against a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback.

• Gold ETF (GLD): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven hedge.

My Trading Plan

I’m cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s bull run, seeing $130,000-$135,000 as achievable by year-end 2025 if ETF inflows and regulatory clarity persist, but I’m preparing for a near-term pullback to $110,000-$115,000. I’ll buy BTC at $110,000-$115,000, targeting $130,000-$135,000, with a $105,000 stop, and COIN at $350-$360, targeting $420-$450, with a $330 stop for long-term growth. For diversification, I’ll add ETH at $3,400-$3,600, targeting $4,200-$4,500, with a $3,200 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $15, targeting $18, and keeping 20% cash to seize dips if tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) or geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran conflict) escalate. I’ll monitor “Crypto Week” bill outcomes, ETF inflows, and economic data for cues.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin’s 3-day drop to $118,458, after hitting $122,780, reflects profit-taking and altcoin rotation, but the bull run remains intact, supported by $150 billion in ETF inflows and “Crypto Week” regulatory optimism. Altcoins like Ethereum ($3,600) and Solana ($302.50) are gaining, potentially reducing Bitcoin’s dominance from 63% to below 60%, but not signaling a trend reversal. Trump’s policies could unlock the $9 trillion pension market, driving demand, but regulatory delays and geopolitical risks pose challenges. Among crypto stocks, Coinbase stands out as a long-term hold for its market leadership and diversified revenue. Investors should buy Bitcoin and Coinbase on dips, diversify with Ethereum, and hedge with VIXY or GLD to manage volatility. The crypto market’s fire is still burning—play it smart to win big.

Is Bitcoin’s bull run pausing or fading? Which crypto stock are you holding long-term? Share your strategy below! 🎁

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